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Statistics AA 97% Failure Rate?

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Old 12-28-2014, 05:17 AM
  # 221 (permalink)  
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Desypete,

Your posts makes a lot of sense. Unfortunately, the longer I am in AA, the more I realize that there are many people with a lot of sober time and worked the 12 steps, that really don't follow it. I was surprised to hear that some of the old timers that shared good stuff and could recite the BB backwards and forwards were up to no good, like hitting on the female newcomers. Others would take advantage of people other ways. But then, there was a guy that would go out of his way to help others not expecting anything in return. I think a lot of it just comes down to what a person was like before they started drinking. The 12 steps works well on people that were already decent people before joining AA. It helps to get them back to being the kind of person they were before. I'm sure there are situations where some people have made a complete turn around also, but that is rare IMO.
That's why newcomers should stick around for a while, and not let a few negative situations convince them that AA does not work. There are many good people in AA, but it takes a while to no who they are and which ones to stay away from. Some people need more than the 12 steps to really get healthy. John
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:19 AM
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How do you know if someone has thoroughly followed the path?

We don't know when someone else has had a spiritual experience. And really, it's none of my business.

I know that I have had one. That doesn't make me perfect. It doesn't mean I practice a perfect program. The first time I did the 12 steps, I left a lot of stuff off my inventory--but not intentionally--I just didn't remember everything or I thought something oaky at that time. Having a spiritual awakening changes my perception about the past as much as the present. I can look back at certain actions today and say, "Wow that was really selfish!" But when I first got sober, I didn't have that clarity or consciousness, and there were a lot of things I missed. I've had to do a few inventories for this very reason. More will be revealed.

I really had no sense of morality when I got sober. My drinking took me so low that the abnormal seemed quite normal to me. It has taken years for me to see some situations for what they really are. My spiritual awakening is a process and a work in progress that continues to evolve as I practice steps 10,11, and 12.

"Thoroughly" to me is just being as honest and willing as I can be at any given moment.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:25 AM
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Originally Posted by 2muchpain View Post
...There are many good people in AA, but it takes a while to no who they are and which ones to stay away from. Some people need more than the 12 steps to really get healthy. John
I've attended hundreds of meetings over the years and found the vast majority of members to be good people.

However, it's also true there are toxic individuals with years of sobriety and boundaries need to be set.

I try and advise those new to the program to check out various meetings. I was fortunate. I liked my first meeting and what I heard. Unfortunately, my second meeting was a different story and I didn't dig it.
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Old 12-28-2014, 06:48 AM
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Originally Posted by NoelleR View Post
How can someone tell if someone has thoroughly followed the 12 steps? You point out the ones still sober and say they were thorough. Everybody else was apparently not. Gotta luv that circular logic, eh '2'.......lolol (o: NoelleR
You realize I was being sarcastic?
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Old 12-28-2014, 07:01 AM
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Originally Posted by 2muchpain View Post
Some people need more than the 12 steps to really get healthy. John
I disagree. I think it would be more accurate to say MOST people need more than the 12 steps to really get healthy . Problem is some people believe the 12 steps are the be all and end all to everything in life.

The 12 steps to me were a path that opened lots of other doors that allowed me to change and grow. They led me to therapy, CBT, exercise, a change of diet, a change of interests, new friends, spiritual paths I'd have otherwise probably never been opened up to. It wasn't about memorizing 164 pages for me, it was about using what was introduced in those pages and incorporating it into MY life, and my experience. And then sharing that experience strength and hope as best I could. The steps also helped me stay the course.

Does this mean I work them perfectly? We all know the answer to that. What I've found though is that over time, through my going to lots and lots and lots of step and bigbook meetings, they've become a part of who I am. My homegroup has always been either a step or BB meeting (and never a preachy type BB meeting, there are some good ones). It's impossible for me to leave those meetings without thoughts and ideas on the steps lingering, while inspiring and pushing me towards a better, healthier way of life. It's very much like brainwashing to me, but it's voluntary, and it's washing a brain that very much needs to be washed.

FWIW, when I was newly sober I read a non AA step book that said if we're truly working a 3rd step, we'll notice that we stop doing things that are harmful to ourselves and others, and start doing healthy things. Our HP after all wouldn't want us destroying ourselves anymore, nor those around us. That made total sense to me. Yet at 2 yrs sober I smoked 3 packs of cigarettes a day, and it was impossible to stop. 4 years, and 100 attempts later I was no closer to quitting. At 5 years sober though I was healing in a lot of ways, certain defects of character seemed to be getting worse. In a few areas I was acting in ways that would easily have people thinking I was full of crap regarding any kind of "spiritual" experience or healing. But I stayed the course and trusted. I kept turning my life and will over, taking my inventory, begging that my defects be removed, and doing service. What I can only see now in retrospect is that the healing I hoped would come, did, in just about all those areas. In the middle of my 5th year I was able to put cigarettes down. Without a whole lot of trouble I might add. My other distasteful activities brought me pain that had me reach out, and I got additional help I needed with that (a new sponsor, different 12 step groups, a bunch of seminars [anyone remember Bradwhaw?], etc). 10 years into sobriety, I was TRULY a different person than the guy that originally walked in the doors of AA.

While I didn't grow in leaps and bounds after that I had a few earth shaking experiences that definitely chipped away at areas that needed remolding.

At 30 years sober I'm still far from being the perfect person I'd like to be, but I'm much further away from the person I used to be. I am hyper aware of what still needs work. Interestingly, this forum tends to bring the worst out in me at times , but I'm actually grateful for that. It helps me see areas that still need lots of work.

Bla, bla, bla.... the 12 steps are a path I'll forever be grateful for being placed upon. If I were to put all this into one sentence I'd simplify by quoting what pagekeeper said. The best I can do is just be as honest and willing as I can be at any given moment. I'd add the open minded part too.
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe Nerv View Post
I disagree. I think it would be more accurate to say MOST people need more than the 12 steps to really get healthy . Problem is some people believe the 12 steps are the be all and end all to everything in life.

The 12 steps to me were a path that opened lots of other doors that allowed me to change and grow. They led me to therapy, CBT, exercise, a change of diet, a change of interests, new friends, spiritual paths I'd have otherwise probably never been opened up to. It wasn't about memorizing 164 pages for me, it was about using what was introduced in those pages and incorporating it into MY life, and my experience. And then sharing that experience strength and hope as best I could. The steps also helped me stay the course.

Does this mean I work them perfectly? We all know the answer to that. What I've found though is that over time, through my going to lots and lots and lots of step and bigbook meetings, they've become a part of who I am. My homegroup has always been either a step or BB meeting (and never a preachy type BB meeting, there are some good ones). It's impossible for me to leave those meetings without thoughts and ideas on the steps lingering, while inspiring and pushing me towards a better, healthier way of life. It's very much like brainwashing to me, but it's voluntary, and it's washing a brain that very much needs to be washed.

FWIW, when I was newly sober I read a non AA step book that said if we're truly working a 3rd step, we'll notice that we stop doing things that are harmful to ourselves and others, and start doing healthy things. Our HP after all wouldn't want us destroying ourselves anymore, nor those around us. That made total sense to me. Yet at 2 yrs sober I smoked 3 packs of cigarettes a day, and it was impossible to stop. 4 years, and 100 attempts later I was no closer to quitting. At 5 years sober though I was healing in a lot of ways, certain defects of character seemed to be getting worse. In a few areas I was acting in ways that would easily have people thinking I was full of crap regarding any kind of "spiritual" experience or healing. But I stayed the course and trusted. I kept turning my life and will over, taking my inventory, begging that my defects be removed, and doing service. What I can only see now in retrospect is that the healing I hoped would come, did, in just about all those areas. In the middle of my 5th year I was able to put cigarettes down. Without a whole lot of trouble I might add. My other distasteful activities brought me pain that had me reach out, and I got additional help I needed with that (a new sponsor, different 12 step groups, a bunch of seminars [anyone remember Bradwhaw?], etc). 10 years into sobriety, I was TRULY a different person than the guy that originally walked in the doors of AA.

While I didn't grow in leaps and bounds after that I had a few earth shaking experiences that definitely chipped away at areas that needed remolding.

At 30 years sober I'm still far from being the perfect person I'd like to be, but I'm much further away from the person I used to be. I am hyper aware of what still needs work. Interestingly, this forum tends to bring the worst out in me at times , but I'm actually grateful for that. It helps me see areas that still need lots of work.

Bla, bla, bla.... the 12 steps are a path I'll forever be grateful for being placed upon. If I were to put all this into one sentence I'd simplify by quoting what pagekeeper said. The best I can do is just be as honest and willing as I can be at any given moment. I'd add the open minded part too.
Now that's what I call an inspirational and very honest post! WOW. John
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Old 12-28-2014, 10:46 AM
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This has been a really interesting thread causing a lot of self-reflection. I don't think its "beating a dead horse" at all. In fact, I think what's discussed here is timeless and very much alive and valuable for anyone sincerely trying to live by 10, 11 and 12 especially. And, incidentally, there's nothing out-dated about it either. As human beings we're classic no matter the time period and the exact same things work or don't work in any given one. Much of this thread is tackling the same matters the Greek philosophers did.... timeless... in their contemporary language that seems archaic but the substance is the same.

The spiritual experience I had only served to remove the distraction of drinking so I could get on with addressing the quality of my life. God didn't take over every minute detail of it, He only stuck with me as I faced myself helping soften the blows as I stayed honest making the process a little less brutal. In my experience, He has been there forgiving me when I had trouble doing that for myself. As a mere mortal, who has stumbled, fallen and gotten back up, I doubt I'll ever have the perspective required for sainthood.

As for others walking their talk, "How it works" is there because anytime addiction is being addressed there WILL be those with "grave emotional" issues and their rate of progress WILL depend on their ability to be honest with themselves. Some will only be able to stay honest with themselves about their substance use but nothing else in their lives like how they treat others. The kind of honesty required for that doesn't happen over night and it may never happen for some. I would venture to say that the likely hood of running into the gamut of psychological and emotional disorders is higher in any recovery program than in the populace at large and that includes AA. I've learned this the hard way and been burned by those who didn't walk their talk. They've lived their whole lives conning for instance and are remorseless, charming, experts at it. The disorders of some means they don't have a conscience. I guess I thought everyone had the same relationship with their HP that I did and, now, deem that a foolish viewpoint. I've actually heard someone with one of these disorders say "God put that person in front of me to use... He provides what I need because He loves me." Yikes! For me, much of the Step work is about maturing. Betrayal in any form is painful and I've learned from it. The measure of my own spiritual progress is how I deal with it. Events have to occur for me to mature so, though life would be less painful without betrayal, something rather dramatic had to happen for me to grow another inch toward maturity. "Thou shall not judge" was a pretty tuff nut to crack when I was raw but I did, eventually, discover the wisdom in those words.

In my view, we're all here struggling with classic issues. I'm here right now dealing with yet another new one. They never end. Each phase of life presents new personally uncharted waters. (Sorry, I'll always be Navy) The Steps have given me the tools and the process I went through learning to use them taught me this is where I need to be not because I'm worried about drinking again... that hasn't been an issue since my own particular spiritual experience some 28 years ago... but this new situation sure is messin with my serenity because though I know without a personal doubt that God exists and is there for me I'm having a hard time letting Him carry this instead of taking it on my shoulders... fear does that... something I wouldn't know without the Steps.
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Old 08-13-2016, 12:40 PM
  # 228 (permalink)  
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Misconception of AA designed to blame AA and not the addict

First getting sober is YOUR responsibility not anyone else's. There are no guarantees no complete answer. People go to AA looking for an answer they go there based on a number of reasons health, the courts, marriage.....I've been sober 26+ years. There are all sorts of sober people with various time, many are new, few are long term. I've heard all those numbers, I've heard 20% thrown about as the recovery number, I never bought it. Unlike the poster, I never heard 75% thrown about as the recovery number. Although we are made of by faith people, we are also made up by secularists and atheists. Some wish us harm. Some are competing with AA, they start their own fellowship borrow the outline of AA and remove those parts of the fellowship they dislike. Many debates occurred at our founding many just around faith arguments. I can't get caught up in debates, it works for me. Not once have I ever seen one member dragged into an AA meeting against their wills by a member, courts yes, members no. They can get up and leave at any time, they can take what they like and leave the rest behind. I wish no agnostic of atheist ill will if they take their show on the road. As long as they allow faith based based the chance to share freely as we will them. In my opinion if the number is 3-5% and that's it then its 3-5% less then what would have died otherwise. They without treatment of some type keeping them sober will die. Although AA is a fellowship of service its deep goal is very selfish, I'm there to keep me sober. If by a by product you also stay sober great. But the outline of this post suggests all the blame for failures lie at the feet of its members. Am I at fault a person on a court slip doesn't want to be there, completes their time and gets drunk? No. I'm I to blame if a person attends meetings for 5 years then suddenly decides not to, doesn't call others and then gets drunk? No. Am I to blame if a new member has a chip on his shoulder then gets drunk because of this point or that and gets drunk? No. If you decide to start dating or 13th stepping and get drunk is that my fault? If you decide to go John Wayne and do it yourself no sponsor and get drunk am I to blame? No. This modern society group blaming is BS, you clean you side of the street and that's it? It doesn't work for others there is little you can do. In my family I know of 5 drunks, My sister, my cousin, my uncle, my great uncle and myself. Of that group two stayed sober a great uncle who died at 13 years sobriety, and myself the other three are dead and died as a result of their drinking. If you stay sober it's because you worked to stayed sober and you were rewarded for it. If you died from drinking its because something else got more important, never is it because one of us or AA in general failed to the job.

Last edited by Jbridgway; 08-13-2016 at 12:45 PM. Reason: spelling
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Old 08-13-2016, 01:46 PM
  # 229 (permalink)  
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Welcome Jbridgway, JFYI, this thread is a couple years old..
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Old 08-13-2016, 01:54 PM
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50% of alcoholics stop drinking on their own without any help. So the people in AA, SMART Recovery etc are the "tough nuts" to start with. This makes the numbers lower to begin with. Also this high "failure" rate isn't the end all. Many people don't get sober after attending one or more meetings. They may still be contemplating whether they even have a problem. Think of how many times we've seen these folks in the rooms, and later come back and become sober.

That was me. I first went to a few meetings and then waited five years before really giving the program a good try because I had a problem and didn't want to live with booze in my life any longer. So technically I am under that failure rate. Someone better tell this to the enamel coin I carry around in my wallet.
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Old 08-14-2016, 05:38 AM
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Most alcoholics always look for an out , or were a genius at blaming others , looking for a ''yes but '' or ''if only '' they ''did this ''

The big book of Alcoholics Anonymous strips bare all those ''EXCUSES'' .
Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path

'' Those that do not recover are people who cannot or will not give themselves to this simple program , usually men and women that are constitutionally incapable of being honest with themselves ,there are such unfortunates , they are not at fault they seem to have been born that way ,they are naturally incapable of grasping and developing and manner of living that demands rigorous honesty , there chances are less than average ''

So do you want what we have, and are ready to take certain steps that are ''suggested as a program of recovery ? yes or no .

Willing to go to any lengths ? yes or no ?.

Half measures avail us nothing , many of us tried to hold on to our old ideas , but the result was nil , remember we deal with alcohol , cunning baffling , powerful , lack of power was our dilemma , there is one who has all power God as you understand him , may you find him now ? yes or no ?

But I am not religious ? AA is a Spiritual program so you choose whatever Higher Power ''You believe in '' no ifs no buts your choice.

I may not fit in ? do not worry no-one asks your second name it is anonymous , we are not interested in your religious/non religious views or sexual preferences , or whether you are male or female , rich or poor , no matter what race or color of your skin or even interested in your political beliefs , married or single.

That means no forms to sign or contracts or financial fees to be paid for membership ! sound good to you ? yes or no ? so how do I join ? the only desire for membership is a desire to stop drinking .

You are kidding me ! no strings attached ? absolutely not you are a member of AA if you say so ! but I am not really to sure if I have a serious drink problem ? ok then if you are not really sure then why not go over to the nearest bar and do some controlled drinking for a month or so then decide for yourself ? its your choice .

What about the Steps ? what are they meant to do ? they are the path to recovery , the removal of self , selfishness and being self centered is the root cause of alcoholism it centers in the mind of the alcoholic , alcohol is only a symptom of alcoholism .

The result of the Steps offer a life beyond your wildest dreams a new freedom ,a new way of life for you and your family if you have one , they are an answer a solution , there are no easier softer ways in our experience .

But are there other methods of recovery ? that is again your choice , we do not involve ourselves with other methods .


So you are saying that ''AA works if I work it ? ''and ''It wont if I don't '' ? YES exactly , no ifs, no buts, no excuses , non exclusive all suggested so take it or leave it ''its that simple ''

That is the facts, the non recovery rates are those that will not , cannot , or are determined not to follow the AA program , and some being typical alcoholics still look for something to blame for their failure, AA for example , looking for a quick fix something that will work right now . Not prepared for a lifetime work of change and appliance and guidance from a Higher Power and Spiritual Progress , they unfortunately prefer financial and material progress in lots of cases .

Do not think anyone can argue with the facts above it all comes from Alcoholics Anonymous Big Book that was written in 1939, and way back then AA did not claim to have all the answers .

AA is not the only game in town , it is ''my chosen suggested path '' its saved my life and I am extremely grateful , others can do whatever they feel free to do in looking for recovery if they choose to do so its none of my business .

Stevie recovered 12 03 2006
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Old 08-14-2016, 06:57 AM
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Great post, Stevie!! Powerful!! Thank you!
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Old 08-14-2016, 06:08 PM
  # 233 (permalink)  
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For the real alcoholic with the desperation of a drowning man he won't give up!
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Old 08-15-2016, 07:29 AM
  # 234 (permalink)  
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I look at the numbers closer to home. From my rehab group of 10, after 12 months the scores were:

Rehab: 3 - Alcoholism: 7 (deceased)

From the same group, those that joined AA:

AA: 3 (recovered and still sober today) Alcoholism: nil
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Old 08-15-2016, 10:03 AM
  # 235 (permalink)  
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I often wonder what happened to a lot of the people that were on here when I joined. Several of the older members have passed on. FB might have taken some members. I started an area where and when. Perhaps, some members went to other sites, some heard what they needed to hear and left,some unfortunate souls, took their last drink.

We alcoholics are slow learners and fast forgetters. I never want to forget the last drunk I had to get me where I am today.

I always try to keep these thoughts fresh in my mind

“I may not be the man I want to be; I may not be the man I ought to be; I may not be the man I could be; I may not be the man I truly can be; but praise God, I'm not the man I once was”. – Martin Luther
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Old 08-15-2016, 01:58 PM
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Good to see you, Captain!! Great stuff!
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Old 08-16-2016, 11:56 AM
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There is only 1 AA success statistic that I have kept up with, and it has remained at 100% for almost 28 years (my AA birthday is September 22).

How to accurately calculate AA successes and failures is itself a matter of considerable debate.

Has AA failed when a court-required attendee completes his or her 30 or 60 day sentence and goes back out and dies drunk?

Has AA failed when someone attends one meeting, never comes back and dies drunk?

Has SMART failed when someone attends one meeting, never comes back and dies drunk?

Do SSRI anti-depressants fail when someone takes them for 1 or 2 days, then quits and commits suicide?

I don't join the debating society on this issue or many others involving AA for that matter.

God and AA have been the foundations for my sobriety since I was 31 years old.

Given my horrible drinking history, remaining sober since my first treatment and AA meeting has been miraculous.

Thus far, that would go in the "win column" from my perspective.

And I attribute my sobriety and recovery completely to God and AA, in that order.
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Old 08-16-2016, 05:52 PM
  # 238 (permalink)  
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Quoting this statistic is a fairly unsatisfactory intellectual maneuver on a semantic level. What does it mean? Is staying sober a year, 2 years, 5 years a failure? Is lifelong sobriety the only criteria for success? Would one similarly quote an anger management course on the basis of stray flip outs that occur years later? A course of therapy against depression? Why does this statistic usually come coupled with the peddling of other programs that can't demonstrate higher success rates? What is the threshold for factoring participation? Attending one meeting? 10 meetings? What of group therapy as a whole? Should there be an expectation that a group therapy should reach out, grab and keep most attendees for the rest of their lives? This is purely without looking at the structure of the study.
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Old 08-16-2016, 11:18 PM
  # 239 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by davaidavai View Post
...Quoting this statistic is a fairly unsatisfactory intellectual maneuver on a semantic level. What does it mean? Is staying sober a year, 2 years, 5 years a failure? Is lifelong sobriety the only criteria for success?...
Since this is the 12-Step Support, I will answer accordingly. The founders of AA set up AA's program to get sober, to quit drinking 'for good' (per the literature). Therefore staying sober a year, 2 years, 5 years only, might be considered a failure, and lifelong sobriety might be considered the only criteria for success.

(o:
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Old 08-17-2016, 12:27 AM
  # 240 (permalink)  
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It's has forgotten where it came from...

I attended AA meetings on an intermittent butt for regular periods in and around the urban conurbation that is Greater Manchester for well over 20 years...

The one question uppermost in my mind was why I couldn't stop drinking?

Problem was they talked about everything else but that! In fact at some if they didn't say the AA Preamble you wouldn't have even known you were at an AA meeting?

Help arrived when someone, to whom I'll always be eternally grateful handed me a recording of one of 'Charlie & Joe's:Big Book Study Meetings' and these two fine gentlemen told me all I needed to know and more... best sponsors I or anyone else ever had...

The problem with AA meetings is perfectly highlighted by Carl Sandburg saying,' A society that forgets where it came from, will destroy itself'...
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