RobertHugh

Heard a statistical comparison tonight that was disheartening to say the least: 6% of people who come to AA stay sober for more than a year, the same rate of success as many placebo studies.

And yet, our AA textbook says "rarely have we seen a man fail who has thoroughly followed our path."

Two immediate conclusions for me, not mutually exclusive:

-those who stay sober are incredibly blessed

-AA is doing a poor job of teaching the path.

Taking5

I have heard similar rates. However I do no know how this could be determined since we do not keep membership lists, take attendance or make follow up calls to the folks that stop coming to meetings.

Also those who "come to AA" and those who "thuroughly follow our path" are 2 different groups of people. A lot of court ordered people "come to AA" with zero desire to stop drinking.

RobertHugh

Agreed.

But can we conclude that we're a long way off the success rates of early AA? (The AA text says 50-75%, and I believe there are letters and other documents that indicate certain Akron groups had 90% success rates).

Or are there enough statistical unknowns to make any sort of conclusion unstable?

Would anyone argue that that recovery rates in 2010 for AA are roughly the same as 1950?

Before we can address an issue, we have to agree there is an issue. And I feel that many people believe the "precipitous" decline of AA success rates is grossly exaggerated. Are they right?

CarolD

Hmmm.....
That makes no sense to me Robert

What exactly is ?
A placebo study is when you take part in a blind trial
of the effectiveness of a drug.
How could you be useing a recovery program
and be unaware?

Am I missing something here? Do you mean
AA is no more effective than other structured
programs and/or those who quit without a formal program?

Depending on what you read and what agendda is
behind the writing....you can get all sorts of
figures on recovery rates.

That survey taken by AA in '92? I have not
met a single AA member who was counted.
Nor were my 3 AA home groups....in 3 areas.

My conclusion.....I discount any percentages by anyone.
Except my own.

I plan to continue to be a 100% AA recovered alcoholic.

RobertHugh

Thanks Carol.

when someone gets the placebo in a study, they aren't getting the actual effective medication. Yet, due to the power of suggestion or other factors, a small portion still "get better." It's usually around 6 percent, I've been told.

The point, taken at it's most dramatic, would be that AA's success rate (where there is no placebo) is the same as a placebo, or, AA is no more effective than a fake pill.

I appreciate that there are a lot of studies and it's hard to draw conclusions, but I believe this is part of the problem. That's why I asked some of those questions...

can we agree that AA's success rate has fallen dramatically since 1950? Seems obvious to me, but I'm looking to see what other people think.

LexieCat

Another issue to consider, I think, is that in 1950, you had to go a bit out of your way to find an AA meeting in a lot of places. The people who came in were probably, on average, feeling fairly desperate and were highly motivated to get sober. I'm just guessing, but I'll bet that today, with more awareness about alcoholism, you get a lot more people who just want to check it out before they are really ready to quit drinking.

My guess is that all statistics for recovery rates, then and now, for AA and other programs, are probably pretty inaccurate. Alcoholics are notoriously unreliable reporters of their own drinking behavior.

CarolD

No Robert....
I don't absolutely know how many AA members stayed sober in "50
or how many stayed sober today.
Neither does anyone else.

I've been in my home group for over 12 years.
It's doubled in size....we have added meetings.
3 new groups have come from ours.

Our monthly Birthday nights where members with at least
1 year are presented with medallions...has many celebrating.

My months is April...we had 9 this year.
My 21st year was 3rd on the list....

It's my experience and observation that AA is not
falling short in attraction or saving interested alcoholics.

Pinkcuda

I concur. I see it all the time. Of 100 people that walk in the door 99 leave. Numbers are meaningless.
What were they expecting when they walked in? Possibly a hostage situation where the ransom would be considered paid with a year of sobriety? Maybe a cult where they get sucked in and join the dark side?
Oh!!! You mean we actually have to do something? Uhhhhh, Yeah, I'll be back next week.
We just save a seat for when they "really" want to quit.

insidejob

At my home group I have noticed that 5 recent newcomers are now missing. This does not surprise me. They managed to stop drinking by going to a few meetings, and that's all they wanted. The circumstances of their lives are not yet bad enough that they want what we have. They do not want to hear about steps or that they have a disease. And that's okay.

I asked after one member recently, and his sponsor told me that "he said he doesn't want what we have, but he didn't put it that politely!" The young man in question is still dry, and doesn't care that he is totally insane. So it goes.

The message is still strong in my home group. Sadly very few people are willing to listen to this message. They simply don't want it.

I've found it damned near impossible to pursuade newcomers that even coming to meetings is a good idea. They'd rather stay at home and watch television.

I heard a chair from a lady recently who is 4.5 years sober. At the end of her chair she looked up at the 12 steps on the wall and said "maybe I might take a look at those steps sometime. I have a sponsor but I don't really call her." Huh????? Ya, maybe you should do that!!!!!!!!!

I saw two young people at a meeting recently who have a years sobriety each, they attend a meeting once a month or so, and they both always say "I really need to get to more meetings."

Perhaps in the 1950's there were less distractions, less satelite TV, less self-help books, less treatment options, less welfare options, less healthcare options, less easier softer ways. Perhaps cotton wool for blocking up the ears is cheaper in the 21st century. I really don't know.

I find it very frustrating to see these things, to see people who don't give a damn about their recovery enough to even go to meetings, let alone "look at those steps" or call a sponsor.

"Those who do not recover are people who cannot or will not completely give themselves to this simple program...they seem to have been born this way"

In many cases I think that it is that they have the reasonable life circumstances (health, career, partner, home) that many people think is what we mean when we talk about "what we have". Who cares about a spiritual solution when living life by self-propulsion is getting them what they actually want!

All that I can do is continue to look after my own recovery, make sure that I do what is suggested and am still willing to go to any lengths.

That way I can still carry the message to the 1 in 10 who actually wants it.


(Quotes from B.B. 1st Edition)

yeahgr8

If we take into account that only 6% max in AA actually do the work and follow the path then we have a near 100% success rate!!!

I just seen a guy that has been coming to meetings for 8 years abstaining...asked me 6 months ago what did i do...sent him to my sponsor...he did the work and its like sitting with a different person...he says to me last month why did no-one tell me to work the steps...cmon mate its read out at every meeting, its on the wall, in the BB and most old timers bang on about them every time they speak...surely a clue lol

Oh well in God's time i guess...its there is someone wants it and there are always a few in the rooms who have followed the path and recovered that can be tapped on the shoulder:-)

shaun00

Well the book hasnt changed......that leaves one conclusion..imo.
There is only one reason to attend AA as far as i believe.
To do the work.......find someone to help me do the work.......or discuss and share my experience doing that work....and subsequent recovery from alcoholism.....then find someone to work with.

In my experience the gap between those meetings and the big book..the 12 steps.........is as wide as the water between me and you guys.

The meetings have become group therapy...they have become something way different from what was intended.....the 12 steps has become a side line.
and the people that do the work become known as "thumpers"..lol

Heres a typical example of the meetings available to me........addicts sponsoring real alcoholics.........problem drinkers telling newcomers they didnt need the steps......guys that havent done the steps sponsoring others.
That is my own experience here in the uk.........im not saying its the case worldwide..but it wouldnt surprise me.

The opening sales pitch from sponsor sponsor was this.." son, i have found a solution for what you describe...but you wont find it here"..
he didnt say it resentfully....he was being honest and wanted to save my life.

Of the guys ive worked with......(through the book and rapidly).
rarely do i see one return to drinking........its happens.....but not often.

I attend AA to find suffering alcoholics.....i need to.
its my responsibility....

Boleo

It turns out that in the early days of AA, there were 2 separate sets of statistics being kept for AA in Ohio and AA in New York. Ohio was getting
50-90% while New York was getting about 5%.

“During the past 12 months we have had quite a number who felt that the fellowship, the helpful attitude toward others, the warming of the heart at social gatherings, was going to be sufficient to overcome the alcoholics obsession. Taking stock at years end, we find that this school of thought has few survivors, for the bottled heat treatment has persuaded them that we must find some sort of spiritual basis for living, else we die. A few, who have worked ardently with other alcoholics on the philosophical, rather than the spiritual plane, now say of themselves “We believed that Faith without works was dead, but we have now conclusively proved that works without Faith is dead also.”

Bill W.
1940 Letter to Clarence S’s wife in Cleveland.

AW2486

I agree.

I also agree the people that do the steps by the book have higher success rates than the people that don't.

If I have learned anything while working with others.. newcomers are unwilling to do the work until they desperate enough to do it. As the BB puts it, they have to come to it like they are drowning. So how many people come into AA in such desperation these days? Most of the guys I work with hit the brakes at step 4. I hit the brakes at step 5. My desperation came after five years in AA, I had to do a 5th step or I was going to drink or die. Thank God the fellowship carried me. I am currently working with a guy who just celebrated 32 years, and is very desperate for recovery. Surrender is the answer. And as Lexi said, desperation is the motivator.

Andy

Music

Every chance I get I pass on just how incredibly blessed I am to be sober and to have the relationship I have with the ONE who incredibly blessed me.

AA does not teach the path to sobriety. AA is the path to sobriety. PEOPLE who don't realize my first point are the ones who fail to "teach" the path to sobriety. Robert, I'd love to see what's going on inside your head so I could understand why/where you come up with these ideas that seemingly point to your attempt to find fault with AA. Stop trying to pick the fly poop out of the pepper. "Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path." What's left unsaid is that people have to continually follow the path. Some seem to think that once a person reaches some magic number of years, they can "rest on their laurels." That's their fault, not the fault of AA. AA talks the opposite.

Tommyh

Robert,we ought to consider a few things
when AA was new,they did not have as many people attending AA as we do today,and they could keep up better with results.
we cannot count every one who comes into the doors as a failure/sucess rate stat.People come for many reasons,and those that want to stay and stay sober,usually will.
it is virtually impossible to accurately count heads because we do not know what the desire is of those who show up for meetings.AA is used by many people for many things.

Robert,I have never known someone I sponsored to fail when they got into the big book and stayed there,never yet.Thats the power of our program for living,not my sponsorship.
To count those who half heartily went to meetings and maybe got into the book a little or quit and later got drunk ain`t a accurate comparison to me.The only stat I believe that is true and fair is the person who really does their best to keep coming back and live our 12 steps daily to the best of their ability.The ones who really try.The success rate is the same in my belief.Robert,I am very Leary of those who claim a low success rate.

what is your experience concerning you thoroughly following the program?
I bet you have a 100 % success rate.I do,so far so good

Mark75

I don't care what the success rates as measured by statisticians and researchers are.

I just don't understand how one would measure surrender, willingness.... and most of all... spiritual awakenings... It's not a realm where science and math have the ability to meaningfully interact. I was trained in the sciences and have a great respect for them, but the scientific method, IMHO, is severely limited here.... I mean, my God, we have people coming into AA from so many different bottoms, for so many different reasons and with so many different levels of willingness... How would one stratify the young heavy drinker who was out too late and blew a .15 and was court ordered to attend AA as opposed to the alcoholic who has lost it all and is on the edge of the abyss and wants, desperately to save his own life.... before it is too late.

And, how would one stratify the 20 year medallion holder who never worked the steps with the chronic relapser who is, actually, making some progress towards a spiritual awakening, and is experiencing some serenity, yet still has some obstacles to overcome along his way....

I have confidence in the program of AA.... I want what they have and will do the work to get it, and I have already made great progress.... and that progress is directly proportional to my own willingness and surrender... progress not perfection. I am convinced that AA is and has been so far 100% successful.... for me.

And what is success, as defined by the statistician anyway.... Abstinence? Permanently?.... is the slipper who went out for a day after 3 years and was back in the next, a failure?

And if the success rate overall is at placebo... well fine... That means that you can work it if you want to, or you can go to SMART, or you can do it all on your own... and it won't matter... you'll have the same chance.

I like AA.

Ananda

I guess i disagree that we have to agree there is a problem.

Frankly, i don't give a hoot what the stats say...

The thing to do is to carry the message, follow the path...thats the solution.

Doesn't matter what the state of AA is today, thats bigger than me...

Also, if gods already got me...doesn't he already have AA as well?

The disucssions of whats wrong with AA and how to fix it seem to lead those I need most to share with me away from carrying the message and into trying to control and fix the world.

RobbyRobot

Yeah, that's the whole truth of how sobriety keeps giving us what we need ourselves and what we got to give to others. Absolutely.

RR

RobertHugh

We do teach the path to sobriety-- it's all through our textbook. It's how we stay sober. We are supposed to grab the newcomer and show them the way. "Attraction not promotion" is too often used as an excuse to sit and wait, but it was intended only for PR. Reticence kills.

Come up with? I speak from the program of recovery outlined in our text. Where are you speaking from?

People are dying because people in AA are sitting around saying, if they want what we have, they'll do the work. Otherwise it wasn't meant to be. That's not recovery. That's selfishness and laziness. That's pepper in a huge pile of poop.

They need to be shown the path, and it's rarely the focus of the modern AA meeting. We talk about our problems. We are not solution-focused. It's junior level group therapy, and it's got very little to do with having a spiritual experience.

Which is fine, if that works for you. Just don't call it AA.

Chops

Dude,

Even my men's group in Woburn Mass, which is about the most anti-thumper meeting you can imagine has the big book on the table where the speaker sits. They give the literature away to any newcomer that wants it. Just about every meeting I go to has the 12 steps on the wall and How it works is read.

I hear members talk about the steps all the time......

You want AA to get into the business of hostage taking?

I am in a foreign country right now and you can get the book in the local language.

AA is spreading the message, all around the world.

You have got to start speaking for yourself, seriously, I am not one to tell people what to do but your now insulting alot of people that make it their lifes work to help drunks. So when you say "people in AA" and then talk about "selfish and lazy" then you are painting with a big freaking brush and are way out of line.

Speak for yourself pal, cause there are alot of folks who have been on that firing line alot longer then you and don't talk the talk but walk the walk. And don't look for any recognition.

People are spreading the message and the book in some countries where the gov't might label them religious agitators because the book mentions God and lock them up.... is that selfish and lazy?

Everyday there are people helping drunks in the halls and in the streets and you sit at your computer and pass judgment on the performance of AA...........please. Just because you don't hear them on the soapbox at meetings does not mean they are not doing the fellowship's work day in and day out.

Think you better warm up to the idea that God Runs the show in AA. And he is everything or he is nothing. It's all Grace.

Have a sober day.