I don't care what the success rates as measured by statisticians and researchers are.
I just don't understand how one would measure surrender, willingness.... and most of all... spiritual awakenings... It's not a realm where science and math have the ability to meaningfully interact. I was trained in the sciences and have a great respect for them, but the scientific method, IMHO, is severely limited here.... I mean, my God, we have people coming into AA from so many different bottoms, for so many different reasons and with so many different levels of willingness... How would one stratify the young heavy drinker who was out too late and blew a .15 and was court ordered to attend AA as opposed to the alcoholic who has lost it all and is on the edge of the abyss and wants, desperately to save his own life.... before it is too late.
And, how would one stratify the 20 year medallion holder who never worked the steps with the chronic relapser who is, actually, making some progress towards a spiritual awakening, and is experiencing some serenity, yet still has some obstacles to overcome along his way....
I have confidence in the program of AA.... I want what they have and will do the work to get it, and I have already made great progress.... and that progress is directly proportional to my own willingness and surrender... progress not perfection. I am convinced that AA is and has been so far 100% successful.... for me.
And what is success, as defined by the statistician anyway.... Abstinence? Permanently?.... is the slipper who went out for a day after 3 years and was back in the next, a failure?
And if the success rate overall is at placebo... well fine... That means that you can work it if you want to, or you can go to SMART, or you can do it all on your own... and it won't matter... you'll have the same chance.
I like AA.