1 in 20, thats the odds 1 in 20 that is what science thinks
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Thread Starter
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Reno, Nv
Posts: 873
1 in 20, thats the odds 1 in 20 that is what science thinks
Ok friends many have told me you hate philosophical post. Let me apologize to members that hate that sort of thing first and foremost, I love you brothers and sisters.
This is an extension of a post I had many months ago, where I basically said 1 in 20 is your, and my odds of making it a year total abstinent. Holy cow, 1 in 20 with or without AA, 1 in 10 with Rehab, 1 in 22 with no intervention on my own. Wow! These statistic are compiled scientifically from reputable sources (because of the rules on outside links I can't and won't post) but how damn depressing.
You know I thought how damn depressing, 1 in 20, no program would matter lest I invest myself into it fully and if the odds bore to fruition its still 1 in 20. Well I had my 1 in 20 last week, I failed to achieve a year of full sobriety, scientist would contend this would make me a failure by their data collection model.
I've done lots of AA, and by their standards I've failed, some long timers have told me "you don't want to be sober". They said this after a guy that could easily down 2 liters of vodka a day, has drank roughly 80 days of a possible 180 days. No its not perfect, but it absolutely represents a change. Total and complete abstinence is something I want, but I don't think I've failed because I have drank in the last 8 months.
In 8 months I've learned not to drink daily, only drinking a 3rd of what I used too, and solved many of my problems lying, no addressing health needs mental and physical, am seeking support, and working a program.
Hell no I am no perfect, hell no I am not the 1 in 20, but hell yes I've made changes, hell yes I am trying daily, hell yes my life is improving, and yell yes one done I am going to rid myself of alcohol. If you modify even the littlest of behaviors and decrease you drinking even a little bit, as long as you are trying I say HELL yes you are a winner.
Total abstinence is my goal, and I always achieve my goals. However, the self righteous attitudes or those have completely achieved sobriety, its one avenue, but they certainly can't claim the solution can they. If that self righteous crowd had the answer, none of us would drink. So those that do occasional imbibe aren't failures, we are success's striving for more success.
Good day friends, this man tries to be pragmatic in all things, and never ever want to disenfranchise or turn on any newcomer. If you came here, and want help, get the help you need and don't let anyone tell you can't or tell you, you are a failure you're not! You win because you know you have a problem and came here.
Even if you're not 1 in 20 doesn't mean you failed, those are stats, and they are largely skewed by the person interrupting them, or taking them. One measure in a world of measures. Stay safe and sober, I promise last philosophical pulpit type post today, haha who knows what tomorrow brings. I was sober 20 minutes typing it thought, that's one success. Love you friends
This is an extension of a post I had many months ago, where I basically said 1 in 20 is your, and my odds of making it a year total abstinent. Holy cow, 1 in 20 with or without AA, 1 in 10 with Rehab, 1 in 22 with no intervention on my own. Wow! These statistic are compiled scientifically from reputable sources (because of the rules on outside links I can't and won't post) but how damn depressing.
You know I thought how damn depressing, 1 in 20, no program would matter lest I invest myself into it fully and if the odds bore to fruition its still 1 in 20. Well I had my 1 in 20 last week, I failed to achieve a year of full sobriety, scientist would contend this would make me a failure by their data collection model.
I've done lots of AA, and by their standards I've failed, some long timers have told me "you don't want to be sober". They said this after a guy that could easily down 2 liters of vodka a day, has drank roughly 80 days of a possible 180 days. No its not perfect, but it absolutely represents a change. Total and complete abstinence is something I want, but I don't think I've failed because I have drank in the last 8 months.
In 8 months I've learned not to drink daily, only drinking a 3rd of what I used too, and solved many of my problems lying, no addressing health needs mental and physical, am seeking support, and working a program.
Hell no I am no perfect, hell no I am not the 1 in 20, but hell yes I've made changes, hell yes I am trying daily, hell yes my life is improving, and yell yes one done I am going to rid myself of alcohol. If you modify even the littlest of behaviors and decrease you drinking even a little bit, as long as you are trying I say HELL yes you are a winner.
Total abstinence is my goal, and I always achieve my goals. However, the self righteous attitudes or those have completely achieved sobriety, its one avenue, but they certainly can't claim the solution can they. If that self righteous crowd had the answer, none of us would drink. So those that do occasional imbibe aren't failures, we are success's striving for more success.
Good day friends, this man tries to be pragmatic in all things, and never ever want to disenfranchise or turn on any newcomer. If you came here, and want help, get the help you need and don't let anyone tell you can't or tell you, you are a failure you're not! You win because you know you have a problem and came here.
Even if you're not 1 in 20 doesn't mean you failed, those are stats, and they are largely skewed by the person interrupting them, or taking them. One measure in a world of measures. Stay safe and sober, I promise last philosophical pulpit type post today, haha who knows what tomorrow brings. I was sober 20 minutes typing it thought, that's one success. Love you friends
Member
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Eastern Us
Posts: 1,366
It seems like you are practicing harm reduction on your way to total abstinence. Seems like a decent way to go. I wouldn't give to much credence in people that don't live your life that are judging you. Keep moving towards sobriety. I have faith in you making it.
Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 126
Intersting stats, TDG. I have one, that I can guarentee is right on the money. My chances of waking up sober in the morning, and going to sleep sober tomorrow night are 100 in 100. I'll worry about the other 364 days as they get here. Great post, by the way.
Last edited by NorMar; 08-31-2014 at 08:23 PM. Reason: spelling
Member
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 155
Quote:
This morning brought more bad news my way, as suspected my blood test were horrendous (I was cautioned that AST and ALT aren't great predictors of actual liver function, sigh that is good news) and now I need to apply for medicaid or Obama care ( not sure which yet) and see a liver specialist and a GP they say.
Dude........NOW is the time my friend.......my humble opinion, not time to kick the can down the road.......(you asked what I thought)
Is it good you have cut down? To quote you @&ll yes. NOW is the time to turn it up a notch, I agree, you are on the way, keep it up and speed it up.
This morning brought more bad news my way, as suspected my blood test were horrendous (I was cautioned that AST and ALT aren't great predictors of actual liver function, sigh that is good news) and now I need to apply for medicaid or Obama care ( not sure which yet) and see a liver specialist and a GP they say.
Dude........NOW is the time my friend.......my humble opinion, not time to kick the can down the road.......(you asked what I thought)
Is it good you have cut down? To quote you @&ll yes. NOW is the time to turn it up a notch, I agree, you are on the way, keep it up and speed it up.
Mary2
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: Scotland
Posts: 215
I agree in a way... I've not achieved abstinence however this year I've drank waaaay less. Because I've realised my problem... I am pleased to have gone for long spells without alcohol I'm proud of myself right now... I don't want to drink again but I cannot say for certain I won't... But I will continue to try on a daily basis... Change and reduction is all positive xxx
Member
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Melbourne, Victoria
Posts: 215
There a people, once like you, who could stop but not stay stopped.
If you get on xaspeakers website, you can download and listen to one of their stories
I'm listening to this one right now, I'd post a link, but I can't get my phone to copy and paste.
Search out this speaker
"matt-h- 3scbozeman2011"
Have a real close listen, because this is very likely "your story" too, in a lot of ways.
Good luck
If you get on xaspeakers website, you can download and listen to one of their stories
I'm listening to this one right now, I'd post a link, but I can't get my phone to copy and paste.
Search out this speaker
"matt-h- 3scbozeman2011"
Have a real close listen, because this is very likely "your story" too, in a lot of ways.
Good luck
Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Australia
Posts: 211,443
The only odds that count for me are that once I gave it 100% I've had 100% success.
I understand people find comfort in quantification but I really don't see this as a race or a competition or a comparative sport - you get out what you put in.
As for harm reduction - well...others have told me it works for them, but it never worked for me - for me, the harm started with that first drink.
D
I understand people find comfort in quantification but I really don't see this as a race or a competition or a comparative sport - you get out what you put in.
As for harm reduction - well...others have told me it works for them, but it never worked for me - for me, the harm started with that first drink.
D
voices ca**y
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: St. Paul Minnesota
Posts: 4,360
I wasn't aware of those odds until after a month clean. It didn't make me think it was undoable it just made me think this is going to be harder than I thought. There are things you can do to help yourself along the way. Maybe the biggest is learning what made you fail to achieve that goal when you did. Learn from it, implement a plan and go again. Those are the same odds for quitting smoking and people keep trying until they get it right on that one.
Member
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Bay Area, California
Posts: 314
The odds still show that someone succeeds. Most odds of success involve chance but this one IMHO reflects work and 100% commitment. It can be done (as that 1 person in 20 shows) - So I say let that person be you!
Member
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 226
Originally Posted by Thatdeliveryguy 
Total abstinence is my goal, and I always achieve my goals. However, the self righteous attitudes or those have completely achieved sobriety, its one avenue, but they certainly can't claim the solution can they. If that self righteous crowd had the answer, none of us would drink.
I like your determination stick to your goal of total abstinance.
As far as one in twenty that's not that bad even if it's true. That means you try twenty times honestly your're probably gonna make it. Hell 50% of the time you'll make it in the first 10.
I've tried at least twenty times. I'm gonna keep trying too never quit trying.
Full steam ahead brother.
12 Step Recovered Alcoholic
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 6,613
I don't believe their are any scientific statistics on AAs recovery rate as AA does not keep statistics.
From my own observation over a long period of time I would be inclined to accept that 1 in 20 who come to AA are successful. The fellowship has a lousy record of keeping people sober.
In my experience, of those who come to AA and really try with the AA program including sposoring others, probably about 1 in 20 that come to the fellowship, most recover.
In my drinking days I found antibiotics never worked for me. I would go to the doctor, get a prescription, maybe take one or two but not follow the doctors instructions, and conclude that antibiotics were a waste of time, and the doctor wasn't much use either.
Of course these days I go to the doctor AND take the medicine. I have found this improves my chances of being cured quite a lot.
From my own observation over a long period of time I would be inclined to accept that 1 in 20 who come to AA are successful. The fellowship has a lousy record of keeping people sober.
In my experience, of those who come to AA and really try with the AA program including sposoring others, probably about 1 in 20 that come to the fellowship, most recover.
In my drinking days I found antibiotics never worked for me. I would go to the doctor, get a prescription, maybe take one or two but not follow the doctors instructions, and conclude that antibiotics were a waste of time, and the doctor wasn't much use either.
Of course these days I go to the doctor AND take the medicine. I have found this improves my chances of being cured quite a lot.
instant
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Australia
Posts: 5,711
Im over three years sober now.
It wasn't until i tried to break free that i was taught by my addiction what i was up against. I was a slow learner and had to repeat some lessons, some more than once. A sober day is a sober day in my book - they can be hard fought for
Having said that i visit SR most days to remind me what i am messing with if i have a drink.
I had six months sober once- had a planned 'one night' session. Took me another few years to string together a few sober weeks.
Recovery is an ongoing journey
It wasn't until i tried to break free that i was taught by my addiction what i was up against. I was a slow learner and had to repeat some lessons, some more than once. A sober day is a sober day in my book - they can be hard fought for
Having said that i visit SR most days to remind me what i am messing with if i have a drink.
I had six months sober once- had a planned 'one night' session. Took me another few years to string together a few sober weeks.
Recovery is an ongoing journey
That bell or bike person
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: london
Posts: 4,978
I'm not sure that statistics are terribly useful for me attaining and maintaining sobriety .
For me i figure life is delt to us in day length chunks because that is what this body is naturally able to deal with . Sometimes my old alike brain trys to make out i can't handle life and the things it throws at me … strangely by not thinking overmuch about hassles and just learning to get through without drink or "props" , doing the next right thing as it appears to me in a measured way , i find i get through .
Keep on living and learning ,
Bestwishes, m
For me i figure life is delt to us in day length chunks because that is what this body is naturally able to deal with . Sometimes my old alike brain trys to make out i can't handle life and the things it throws at me … strangely by not thinking overmuch about hassles and just learning to get through without drink or "props" , doing the next right thing as it appears to me in a measured way , i find i get through .
Keep on living and learning ,
Bestwishes, m
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