I can only speak for myself, but I will always be just one drink away from disaster. No matter how long I am sober, I will always have the brain chemistry of an alcoholic and could go right back to where I was in a very short period of time. I am sure it will get easier to abstain as time goes on because abstaining has become my new normal, but I can't imagine a life where I won't have that tiny voice in the back of my mind saying "You can control it this time. Just have one."
But your mileage may vary a lot. I have met people with long term sobriety who say they never get cravings anymore and can't even imagine taking a drink now. I know myself well enough to know that I still miss the feeling you get after that first drink, so I will always have to be somewhat vigilant about my mind set when it comes to social events. It's all too easy for me to romanticize that first drink and forget all the awful things that happen when I have the second, third, fifth, tenth... etc. For me, I think it will always have to be a conscious choice not to drink, so that means I need to stay on top of my recovery and plan my social events ahead of time.
It can be a lot of extra work, but I try to remind myself "sobriety is hard, but not nearly as hard as being an active alcoholic was."