bim, I agree there's something fishy about China -- the quarantine within Hubei worked almost too well to be believed. Really, no spread? Zero new deaths today? Russia might have been hiding it for a while, though charitably, COVID-19 might have taken the slow train to get there.
When I first started tracking, Hubei looked about 2%. My guess, like you say: it just takes a while for people to die. Grim to write. What did Cuomo call death? A lagging indicator.
I agree that people will be retrospecting for a while on deaths that occurred in January. The numbers may never settle down -- in many African states and in India, for instance, no one will ever know how much COVID contributes to the perpetual pain and suffering citizens endure.
I'm posting perhaps too much about COVID -- it's probably starting to look like I'm obsessed. I hope that if anyone is freaked out by curves and statistics, they've already put me on "ignore." Hey, today's local numbers are happy-making! Watch that cubic trend approach 0 new cases!
love ya'
