Between now and decision day, I’m going to find out about 1) his willingness to stop drinking; 2) try my best to assess likelihood of success;
Most alcoholics/problem drinkers have a “willingness” to stop/cut back/manage their drinking. The willingness isn’t the problem it’s the follow through and commitment to remain sober. You have already witnessed his willingness and you see how that went. I would think that is a pretty good indication of his success.