Originally Posted by
bugsworth 
The 95% rate which is quoted so often is a retention rate of newcomers after one year...only 5% remain in aa.
Yeah, I know that bugsworth. I'm not sure mistycshore does, but that's OK. I'd guess 5% is about right when talking about retention or those coming into AA and actually recovering. But walking into AA and taking AA's steps are very different things. I know that you are aware of that.
I've never based my views on the success rate of AA by what's in the book. It's just my own observation, which, granted, is very limited. Over the years, it's become apparent to me that the folks walking in to AA who work the steps will recover. They are still around years later. The folks who do not work the steps have mixed results. Some of them are around, most are not (95% maybe?). Many show up a few months, or a year, or even a few years later having had the sh*t beat out of them. And we go through it again. Those who work the steps recover. And so forth. After a while, that 'rarely have we seen a person fail' bit makes sense. It matches my experience.
I just don't see those who recover on their own. So I make no claims about them. I see examples of them, like yourself, and I believe what you say.