I think the question is too open to interpretation and circumstance. Someone may have gone to stage 0 to stage 4 overnight because of the loss of a loved one, they may stay that way for 6 months then find a way to return to stage 0 again.
I believe I was destined for stage 4 from the second I hit stage 1, in other words I have it in me to be that level of alcoholic whatever stage I am in my life regardless of how hard I try to moderate. I want to be able to moderate and I tried and failed for 10 years. The day I admitted that I can't and never will be able to moderate was the day I became free,