I was watching an interview on Klean Radio the other day, and the interviewee said something along the lines:
What we find is that about only 2 out of ten people who come out of rehab make it a full year sober. However in the second year that statistic is flipped around and only 2 out of 10 people relapse in their second year.
So what's going on in those two years? What we see is that often the motivation to get into recover is some form of loss, the addict has, or is about to lose something very important to them. However, that motivation is fleeting. It's like fixing a hole in roof when it's raining. Once it stops raining, you forget about the hole.
What seems to work much better is positive motivation. In other words, especially in the second year, people start to get excited and really turned on by sobriety and all of the possibilities and opportunities that it affords them.
Well, makes sense to me, don't know where he got his stats from though.