Originally Posted by
ownedbypugs 
I wish this would make a difference, but, I don't think it will. I think if anything he will use it for an excuse to drink.
It will make a difference to you and your other guests if you don't have to deal with an embarrassing drunk at your gathering.
How he deals with it--whether it's something that will open his eyes a bit more or whether it's just another excuse to drink--isn't something you can control. That's totally on him. You didn't not invite him to punish him, but rather so you and others at the party don't have to deal with unpleasantness. If he wants an excuse to drink, an alcoholic never has a shortage of those.
If he came, you'd be on pins and needles the whole time. So try to enjoy your other guests. This is ONE holiday gathering. You haven't cut him out of your life, just from an event that historically has turned out badly. If you have to do it again for the same reason, you can do that. Alcoholics are very good at taking hostages, without any evil intent. You and your other guests should not be at the mercy of the unpredictable behavior of a drunk.