I think its a question of possibility and probability.
To say its possible I think accurate. Yes I believe it is possible that some alcoholic amongst them all has been able to later moderate for a period of time. To say its probable forever I believe inaccurate.
The probability of being able to moderate is so low that I am unsure why any professional would ever recommend it. The ability to moderate would have to be monitored over a lifetime. To my knowledge there is no literature of substance that would back the claim other than a personal blog or a non-scientific experiment. The risk of not being able to moderate is high, so high that I would say the likelihood is <.0000000000000000001.
I too agree that anyone who claims to later to be able to moderate in most likely not to have been an alcoholic in the first place.
I believe moderation is most likely to occur for a period of time rather than always. When my husband relapsed he believed his sobriety of 10 years proved that he was not an alcoholic in the first place. It is true that he moderated for many months (of which I did not know he was drinking though had suspicions). When it all came out he drank "like a normal person" in front of me for about 6 weeks. Until one night he got sh!t faced, drove drunk, insulted our friends, threatened me and acted like a crazy person. While I do believe he had some memories of the night (though he claimed not to) what I am sure of is he had no recollection of driving MY CAR to the liquor store to buy another bottle (when there was a half large bottle at home) to be sure he didn't run out on Sunday. Of course boasting the entire time that in 20 years of DD he never got a DUI, in fact, he drives better drunk than sober.
Success moderating - about 9 months
Failure - in 6 hours.
Nuff said.
Btw my husband also said he had heavily researched moderation and had found many articles supporting that it works!!! He said he had found an article that said anyone who can maintain sobriety for 5 years plus was never an alcoholic to begin with. He was unable to find those articles to show me LOL when I asked for them. Instead blame shifted that I was challenging his honesty, picked a fight, then had a drink because I stressed him out. LOL.