Interesting question this, and I like some already are looking for tricks in the language/narrative of the problem. Thinking about people and personalities and so on.... But I suspect Freshstart is right and it may be probability trap, I look forward to getting the answer. Can I ask AWUH is it anything like how we tend to over/underestimate probabilities like the math on the probability of two people sharing the same birthday in a room of thirty, where we instinctively believe its long odds but it actually is way shorter odds (higher probability). Its evening here in Australia so I will have this mulling in my head in my dreams, I still find it difficult to get away from the detail in the story as being relevant in some way.