I think for Moderation Management to work, you have to believe that you can alter your behavior. You have to BELIEVE that you are not going to get drunk. You have to BELIEVE that you can have one.
There is a lot of research on the effects of just stopping and the thinking that having just one is a failure. Thus the following binge that one goes on feeling that he/she might as well as they lost all that time anyway. The fear based life of one is going to kill ya might just kill ya if you have one and go on a binge out of guilt...
just a thought...