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Any other NY'ers here in the midst of this horror?

Old 04-16-2020, 03:25 AM
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Courage - I have not analyzed this and asked what exactly makes the differences between various big cities and personally wouldn't feel competent to. But I imagine local lifestyle and culture make a difference, too, and that would not show up in those numbers. I've never been to Hubei but lived in London for a few years in the past and it's quite different from NYC, not only in density that's obvious even when you just walk around on the streets or use public transportation during a normal time, but also in culture and people's behavior. People tend to have a more "keeping a distance" mentality in London (probably in the UK in general vs American culture at least). There aren't so many large apartment buildings, especially with shared facilities. I think people in NYC tend to be quite impatient and live a more fast-paced life compared to everywhere else I've lived, including even London.

I'm talking about London because that's what I know quite well (although it's been >10 years now), probably there are many cultural differences in Hubei and other places in Asia, likely even more. These things don't necessarily influence death rate per se, but I am sure they affect infection rate. Plus there is also what you mentioned, that we just have no idea how accurate those known COVID case numbers are in the various places.

As far as testing, I can speak for my own experience that remains uncertain. When I was sick recently, I really tried to look for an opportunity to get tested without going to the ER or an Urgent Care facility, to no avail so far, hospital even messed up an appointment I could actually get. So no testing. Maybe at some point, if they call me for the antibody testing, but I am honestly less enthusiastic about it now and probably would not pursue very actively, unless there was an easy opportunity. Just like it is being often said, probably thousands of non-severe cases are missed in this way everywhere. Heck, they even miss quite a lot of COVID deaths when they cannot be linked to COVID formally... not sure how many are even analyzed and diagnosed post-mortem.

I understand the curiosity about the numbers and trying to figure something out though. I did a bit similar about the actual biology part that some research groups have published last week (using methods that I also use in my own work so am familiar with), it can be interesting. There have also been countless similar, very active discussions about the numbers and everything COVID among professional and amateur scientists on social media that I kinda followed for a while in the beginning. I personally think, in part, trying to dive into it this way can reflect a need for control via attempting to understand. Certainly more fun for me than shopping sprees and hoarding toilet paper
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Old 04-16-2020, 04:28 PM
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Still thinking of and wishing you NYERS all the best

D
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Old 04-16-2020, 05:19 PM
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Curve estimation of the relationship between incidence and time in NYC show a linear relationship accounts for for 46% of variance -- in other words, looking at new case count as if it were a daily increase is not a great model. A cubic relationship accounts for about 81% of variance -- much better! Even more so if you don't accept NYS data from yesterday -- NYS reports a big jump in positive tests for NYC from the previous day, where NYC does not. Not sure why the discrepancy.

Anyway, here it is with the NYS data from yesterday (a rise in new cases at the right tail). Days elapsed are since March 2.



Everyone has a hobby
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Old 04-16-2020, 05:59 PM
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C2, my purely instinctual guess is that the numbers we have out of China are not correct. Whether that's on purpose or a flaw in reporting or whether it took them a while to figure it out - that is anyone's guess.


I also wonder why some states in the US (like NC and NM) have a .02 death to positive test result ratio and others, like NY and WA have a .05. There must be either some odd health belt or poor reporting or (most likely) the cases started later and they locked down when the rest of us did, even though they hadn't had serious outbreaks.

In my opinion it's also partly that the SARS Cov2 virus was only sequenced in mid January (like the 20th, maybe?) and that there were likely already deaths and recoveries some time before that in some areas like NY and WA, but they were attributed to "flu like illness" and pneumonia - before we had testing.
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Old 04-16-2020, 06:18 PM
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bim, I agree there's something fishy about China -- the quarantine within Hubei worked almost too well to be believed. Really, no spread? Zero new deaths today? Russia might have been hiding it for a while, though charitably, COVID-19 might have taken the slow train to get there.

When I first started tracking, Hubei looked about 2%. My guess, like you say: it just takes a while for people to die. Grim to write. What did Cuomo call death? A lagging indicator.

I agree that people will be retrospecting for a while on deaths that occurred in January. The numbers may never settle down -- in many African states and in India, for instance, no one will ever know how much COVID contributes to the perpetual pain and suffering citizens endure.

I'm posting perhaps too much about COVID -- it's probably starting to look like I'm obsessed. I hope that if anyone is freaked out by curves and statistics, they've already put me on "ignore." Hey, today's local numbers are happy-making! Watch that cubic trend approach 0 new cases!

love ya'
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Old 04-16-2020, 07:49 PM
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I hope so Courage. The thing is novel, and not well understood. It might make a comeback and reason to lock down further imo.

I reckon there's something fishy about all of them. Numbers switched everywhere. Objectification of people as banks bleed.
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Old 04-16-2020, 10:20 PM
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I'm not happy that Facebook was involved, but New Yorkers don't love each other the way we do when there's a crisis.

https://www.timeout.com/newyork/news...windows-041620
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Old 04-17-2020, 06:51 AM
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C2...
China Raises Wuhan Death Stats By Half To Account For Reporting Delays And Omissions
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...lays-and-omiss
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Old 04-17-2020, 10:30 AM
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I'm posting perhaps too much about COVID -- it's probably starting to look like I'm obsessed. I hope that if anyone is freaked out by curves and statistics, they've already put me on "ignore." Hey, today's local numbers are happy-making! Watch that cubic trend approach 0 new cases!

I dunno. I think that's what these threads are for. Its hard not to be both frightened and fascinated by this. And I hope that doesn't offend. But the science, the politics, the emotions, the psychology is all kind of amazing. I keep hoping that some kind of global human consciousness can come out of this. That this tiny blue planet is all we have and that we cannot beat nature. We have to work with it. Or it will eliminate us.

Imagine if we took our global expenditure on warfare and weapons of war and dedicated half of that to poverty and pandemic preparedness. I mean, we can stop killing each other. Mother nature has got this!
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Old 04-17-2020, 11:08 AM
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entropy, one of the thoughts that came to me early-on in this is that in fact eventually humans will either self-destruct or be taken out by some Force of the Universe. I mean, of course the planet will be better off and will do just fine - unless it's blown up entirely somehow by some larger force like the sun imploding or a massive collision with some random space object.



The meek shall inherit the earth.



Nothing much smaller and less significant than a coronavirus.
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Old 04-17-2020, 07:25 PM
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The city no longer seems to be updating its daily case data. For the last two days, NYS has reported more new cases for the city than NYC has reported, by a factor of 5 or more. All I can imagine is the Cuomo has changed the reporting structure to scoop the city.

The state has created a similar data access point to the one the city has been running but its interface is awkward and it only seems to give daily positive counts, not fatalities.It's frustrating.
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Old 04-17-2020, 07:29 PM
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In our state, (WA) the tool that was calculating was the same computerized tool that has been used for flu and other infectious diseases.

The tool got overwhelmed and "broke.."apparently...that's what they say... for about 12 days we didn't get updates about numbers of tests being performed. That was hard to watch. The death numbers kept rising but the number of tested people stayed at 89,000 for 12 days.

I mean, nothing about this is easy to watch.
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Old 04-18-2020, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by entropy1964 View Post
I'm posting perhaps too much about COVID -- it's probably starting to look like I'm obsessed. I hope that if anyone is freaked out by curves and statistics, they've already put me on "ignore." Hey, today's local numbers are happy-making! Watch that cubic trend approach 0 new cases!

I dunno. I think that's what these threads are for. Its hard not to be both frightened and fascinated by this. And I hope that doesn't offend. But the science, the politics, the emotions, the psychology is all kind of amazing. I keep hoping that some kind of global human consciousness can come out of this. That this tiny blue planet is all we have and that we cannot beat nature. We have to work with it. Or it will eliminate us.

Imagine if we took our global expenditure on warfare and weapons of war and dedicated half of that to poverty and pandemic preparedness. I mean, we can stop killing each other. Mother nature has got this!
Entropy, you said exactly how I feel, "frightened and fascinated.".

I keep looking up information about the Spanish Flu. Apparently that pandemic really changed the world. This one will too.
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Old 04-18-2020, 04:02 PM
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I really wish people in NYC would just stop the daily honking and screaming at 7pm already. I don't even know what kinds of people engage in this habit daily exactly at the same time to the second, for weeks... many elements of the noise definitely sound like coming from the same source every day where I live. It is getting creepy, intrusive and self-centered to continue with this for weeks, IMO. I can only hope that my neighborhood will not start singing or playing music out loud - I definitely would not perceive that as a sign of love, good community and solidarity and I know I am not alone with it. Do something meaningful and respectful to express your appreciation, people!
OK rant over
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Old 04-19-2020, 03:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Aellyce2 View Post
I really wish people in NYC would just stop the daily honking and screaming at 7pm already. I don't even know what kinds of people engage in this habit daily exactly at the same time to the second, for weeks... many elements of the noise definitely sound like coming from the same source every day where I live. It is getting creepy, intrusive and self-centered to continue with this for weeks, IMO. I can only hope that my neighborhood will not start singing or playing music out loud - I definitely would not perceive that as a sign of love, good community and solidarity and I know I am not alone with it. Do something meaningful and respectful to express your appreciation, people!
OK rant over
I agree in part. When the videos of Italians singing on their balconies and applauding healthcare workers began it was wonderful and really lifted the spirits of everyone. But that lasted about a week to 10 days and then we all started to realise singing and dancing on balconies was just not the right "mood" for the occasion. Solidarity, yes, but the singing amidst all the deaths just started to take on a sour taste to everyone.
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Old 04-19-2020, 03:59 AM
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As for China under-reporting, yes, I think it is quite obvious that the numbers are not exactly correct. I speak daily to people in China for my English lessons and those who are able to speak freely (using a VPN, whatever that it, or some sort of incognito access to the web) tell me that they are very unhappy with their government and know that the numbers are higher and things are not as great as they are making it out to be. I can always tell when someone has some secret access portal to the web as they speak of frustration and anger. Those that access the web, thus my site where I give lessons on a "unsafe" connection always speak- albeit in a strained, almost fake way- of how great things are and what a great job the government did. But it is what it is.
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Old 04-19-2020, 06:56 AM
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If anyone in NY is interested in donating blood or plasma - this is a good program. Don't need to be a COVID survivor, it's just normal donation during a time when many people are afraid of doing it.

https://www.covidbloodresponse.com/blood-drive
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Old 04-20-2020, 08:18 PM
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God bless this city!

There's a theater company here -- some of you may have heard of it -- Red Bull. They specialize in 17th century revenger's tragedies, my favorite genre. Tonight they live-streamed 'Tis Pity She's A Wh0re (I have to write it funny to avoid censorship). You can still watch it at their site, and in two weeks they're doing The Witch of Edmonton. I guess I'm advertising it -- is it against the rules if it's free?

Anyway, it made me so happy. From the minute the cast all said where they were streaming from, to the gory end Thank you, rude mechanicals!
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Old 04-21-2020, 03:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Meraviglioso View Post
I agree in part. When the videos of Italians singing on their balconies and applauding healthcare workers began it was wonderful and really lifted the spirits of everyone. But that lasted about a week to 10 days and then we all started to realise singing and dancing on balconies was just not the right "mood" for the occasion. Solidarity, yes, but the singing amidst all the deaths just started to take on a sour taste to everyone.
I know all countries are suffering, but I cant help but feel the whole of Italy is simply traumatized. Cant help but wonder what the after effects will be. How quickly this took away so many people, and has forever changed those left behind.
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Old 04-21-2020, 11:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Lines View Post
I know all countries are suffering, but I cant help but feel the whole of Italy is simply traumatized. Cant help but wonder what the after effects will be. How quickly this took away so many people, and has forever changed those left behind.
When it first happened here I hoped and prayed it would not become a worldwide issue but it has. I think the whole world is traumatised to be honest. It has been so sad to watch it play out. Obviously the death and the suffering, the economic losses and loss of freedom, but to watch various people I know- some of the strongest I know, just crumble. I personally have good days and bad days but some people have even been leaning on me during this time, saying I am one of the few people listening and understanding their depression and trauma, I guess because I have been through so much of that myself I am a little bit more prepared for what it feels like. It is strange to be the one providing support instead of leaning on others!
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