Statistics are meaningless when it comes to drinking
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Join Date: Aug 2014
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Statistics are meaningless when it comes to drinking
It's been mentioned a few times here that people will give you all kinds of numbers related to relapsing. People get worried that they're doomed to failure, which in term, makes them lose hope and they drink.
It's a vicious cycle.
But you're not a statistic. In fact you've been defying the odds your whole life and you haven't even noticed.
The chances of you existing, in this day and age, in a relatively prosperous country, is incalculable. The chances of you getting the disease of addiction and then ending up here, is beyond measure.
Every single thing about you is more unlikely than you can possibly ever conceive.
So if someone tells you that the odds are against your favor, just tell them you wouldn't want to break the pattern of a lifetime.
No relapse, no surrender.
Tom.
It's a vicious cycle.
But you're not a statistic. In fact you've been defying the odds your whole life and you haven't even noticed.
The chances of you existing, in this day and age, in a relatively prosperous country, is incalculable. The chances of you getting the disease of addiction and then ending up here, is beyond measure.
Every single thing about you is more unlikely than you can possibly ever conceive.
So if someone tells you that the odds are against your favor, just tell them you wouldn't want to break the pattern of a lifetime.
No relapse, no surrender.
Tom.
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: New England
Posts: 1,926
Originally Posted by Thomasthetank 
It's been mentioned a few times here that people will give you all kinds of numbers related to relapsing. People get worried that they're doomed to failure, which in term, makes them lose hope and they drink. It's a vicious cycle. But you're not a statistic. In fact you've been defying the odds your whole life and you haven't even noticed. The chances of you existing, in this day and age, in a relatively prosperous country, is incalculable. The chances of you getting the disease of addiction and then ending up here, is beyond measure. Every single thing about you is more unlikely than you can possibly ever conceive. So if someone tells you that the odds are against your favor, just tell them you wouldn't want to break the pattern of a lifetime. No relapse, no surrender. Tom.
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 1,375
I think they are meaningless too. We have all kinds of people on the Substance Abuse side that cleaned up and never looked back. My dad was an alcoholic for 30 years and he cleaned up decades ago. No one ever polled us.
From what I have seen, its about 50/50. You have just a good a chance of succeeding as you do failing.
From what I have seen, its about 50/50. You have just a good a chance of succeeding as you do failing.
Self recovered Self discovered
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Toronto Canada
Posts: 5,148
Many people don't understand that statistics are statements about large groups and not about individuals, and the outcome related to an individual might not be related to chance in the slightest. This is a logical fallacy called a sweeping generalization.
Example? 99% of people die in hospitals. This does not mean that there is a 99% chance of you dying in a hospital next time you go. Or that you should stay out of them. Both of these statements show a gap in thinking ability.
I get sad to see people in the midst of their struggles be told that hardly anyone succeeds, it's very difficult, even if you do succeed you could fail again at any second. I just don't see how that can help anyone.
You will succeed if you decide that nothing can stop you and that failure will not be an option. Believe in your success, believe in yourself, and demand a better life, one without alcohol. You will have it if you do.
Example? 99% of people die in hospitals. This does not mean that there is a 99% chance of you dying in a hospital next time you go. Or that you should stay out of them. Both of these statements show a gap in thinking ability.
I get sad to see people in the midst of their struggles be told that hardly anyone succeeds, it's very difficult, even if you do succeed you could fail again at any second. I just don't see how that can help anyone.
You will succeed if you decide that nothing can stop you and that failure will not be an option. Believe in your success, believe in yourself, and demand a better life, one without alcohol. You will have it if you do.
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Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Unshackled
Posts: 7,901
Originally Posted by freshstart57
I get sad to see people in the midst of their struggles be told that hardly anyone succeeds, it's very difficult, even if you do succeed you could fail again at any second. I just don't see how that can help anyone.
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: C.C. Ma.
Posts: 3,697
Hi.
In the age of the internet there are people who believe what they read on it without question.
I got sober some time before the internet word was invented so I’m ignorant by a lot of fact that only the privileged have or invent. One is that about 20% of the population in the US have an alcohol problem, that’s not saying they all are alcoholics, just that many drink in a non healthy manner. It used to be said that 50% of newcomers got sober, 25% eventually did and the remainder never made it. That’s not saying all stayed sober because being a mobile society who can keep tract of millions?
Over many years I’ve seen many slip by slowly returning to their old ways and forgetting the pain that got them sober, others drank because they thought they could because of being sober for a period of time. Reasons abound but who really knows?
In my experience of going to 13K + meetings I’ve never seen or heard anyone say they were questioned about their sobriety. I have seen some methods of how to figure it out but they to me were flawed or inaccurate.
All I know is I’ll get through this day gratefully without drinking.
BE WELL
In the age of the internet there are people who believe what they read on it without question.
I got sober some time before the internet word was invented so I’m ignorant by a lot of fact that only the privileged have or invent. One is that about 20% of the population in the US have an alcohol problem, that’s not saying they all are alcoholics, just that many drink in a non healthy manner. It used to be said that 50% of newcomers got sober, 25% eventually did and the remainder never made it. That’s not saying all stayed sober because being a mobile society who can keep tract of millions?
Over many years I’ve seen many slip by slowly returning to their old ways and forgetting the pain that got them sober, others drank because they thought they could because of being sober for a period of time. Reasons abound but who really knows?
In my experience of going to 13K + meetings I’ve never seen or heard anyone say they were questioned about their sobriety. I have seen some methods of how to figure it out but they to me were flawed or inaccurate.
All I know is I’ll get through this day gratefully without drinking.
BE WELL
Member
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Bklyn. NY
Posts: 1,859
Originally Posted by Thomasthetank
It's been mentioned a few times here that people will give you all kinds of numbers related to relapsing. People get worried that they're doomed to failure, which in term, makes them lose hope and they drink.
There are very few statistics I ever read that I pay any attention to at all. If it's not something that can be clearly and easily measured, it's all BS IMO. Especially when it comes to alcohol.
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Join Date: May 2014
Location: liverpool, england
Posts: 1,708
i went to aa for 3 years in my early 20s as my problem was i was a weekend binge drinker, when i got drunk i ended up either in trouble or caused a lot of trouble, i wasnt a drinker who sat at home and was quiet and just had a few to many etc
my drinking caused me trouble caused my kids trouble caused everyone who loved me trouble
i didnt know that when i took the first drink it started a craving off in me were control is almost impossible, only aa was able to teach me that as there was no internet around and back then
certainly none of this avrt thing or anything else other than lock ups for drunks
so i learned all about how taking that first drink would lead me to another and another and ultimately i would get so blind rotten drunk i could of done anything
anyway thanks to aa i stoped picking up that first drink and i was afraid of it after all if you end up going to prison and getting locked up time and time again you soon feel like this isnt working
my life changed for the better i ended up working earning a lot of money and i started up my own small business and made even more money
home life was ok and we ended up with 5 kids along the way
i left aa after 3 years sober, i know today i was the biggest fake in the aa rooms as all i had learned to do really was say things in the meetings that i thought others would like to hear and it worked
but there was one or two memebers who used to say things to me like its ok talking the talk but you have to walk the walk
i hated them for that as its like they could see right through me and of course they could and were right
anyway 15 years later i picked up that first drink again and i thought i was ok as i didnt have another one after it so i went and tried it again and dared myself to have 2 drinks and that went ok, same again the next time but with 4 pints and i had the best time ever drinking as i got my happy feelings i always wanted and i went home happy and didnt cause anyone any harm
yipppeeeeeee i thought i am cured i can now drink normaly again
8 years later after picking up that first drink
i had lost my 2 youngest kids to social workers care, my business had gone, my home had gone, my older kids didnt want to know me anymore, i ended up going back to prison more than once for my drunkeness and my drinking progressed from weekend bender drinking to everday drinking
i ended up in a flat that just had a mattress soaked in my stayle pee and the flat stunk like an unclean toilet
how did this all happen to me ?
simple i cut aa out of my life i ignored all there warnings and just went off on my own to do this myself
i ended up back in aa and ever since my life has turned around again like it will for anyone who wants it
the difference i can see for many more so online is that most havent ever experienced anything i have and there drink problem seems to be in a lot early stages if indeed there alcoholic as drink problems are one thing and alcoholic is another
i was so close to being a tramp out on the streets i really was, now i am up on top again and my head is clear i find it hard that i was once ever like i was, this is were new comers and being around aa come in as when i see them come into the rooms and many still have the shakes well it takes me back as if its only yesterday i gave up and not the 10 years i have been sober so far
so i am sober today and today only as i might have a drink tomorrow or of course i might end up dead tonight, no one knows when there number is up do we ? so i live for one day only
i can make plans like a holiday etc in the future but for normal every day things it has to be in the day
and from my own experience of being sober 15 years and then picking up the drink again well i thought i had it cracked and i was cured and that i would never again drink
how wrong i was, and the price i paid for it was huge. so i dont ever want to make that same mistake again so i stick with my winners and the good news is there still around today sober after 30 40 years some of them, if i would of only kept on coming back from when i was a youngster to now i would be nearly 30 years sober myself if i had instead of the 10. also my life would never of ended up as bad as it did
but there is nothing i can do about it now other than learn from it and make sure it never happens again
my drinking caused me trouble caused my kids trouble caused everyone who loved me trouble
i didnt know that when i took the first drink it started a craving off in me were control is almost impossible, only aa was able to teach me that as there was no internet around and back then
certainly none of this avrt thing or anything else other than lock ups for drunks
so i learned all about how taking that first drink would lead me to another and another and ultimately i would get so blind rotten drunk i could of done anything
anyway thanks to aa i stoped picking up that first drink and i was afraid of it after all if you end up going to prison and getting locked up time and time again you soon feel like this isnt working
my life changed for the better i ended up working earning a lot of money and i started up my own small business and made even more money
home life was ok and we ended up with 5 kids along the way
i left aa after 3 years sober, i know today i was the biggest fake in the aa rooms as all i had learned to do really was say things in the meetings that i thought others would like to hear and it worked
but there was one or two memebers who used to say things to me like its ok talking the talk but you have to walk the walk
i hated them for that as its like they could see right through me and of course they could and were right
anyway 15 years later i picked up that first drink again and i thought i was ok as i didnt have another one after it so i went and tried it again and dared myself to have 2 drinks and that went ok, same again the next time but with 4 pints and i had the best time ever drinking as i got my happy feelings i always wanted and i went home happy and didnt cause anyone any harm
yipppeeeeeee i thought i am cured i can now drink normaly again
8 years later after picking up that first drink
i had lost my 2 youngest kids to social workers care, my business had gone, my home had gone, my older kids didnt want to know me anymore, i ended up going back to prison more than once for my drunkeness and my drinking progressed from weekend bender drinking to everday drinking
i ended up in a flat that just had a mattress soaked in my stayle pee and the flat stunk like an unclean toilet
how did this all happen to me ?
simple i cut aa out of my life i ignored all there warnings and just went off on my own to do this myself
i ended up back in aa and ever since my life has turned around again like it will for anyone who wants it
the difference i can see for many more so online is that most havent ever experienced anything i have and there drink problem seems to be in a lot early stages if indeed there alcoholic as drink problems are one thing and alcoholic is another
i was so close to being a tramp out on the streets i really was, now i am up on top again and my head is clear i find it hard that i was once ever like i was, this is were new comers and being around aa come in as when i see them come into the rooms and many still have the shakes well it takes me back as if its only yesterday i gave up and not the 10 years i have been sober so far
so i am sober today and today only as i might have a drink tomorrow or of course i might end up dead tonight, no one knows when there number is up do we ? so i live for one day only
i can make plans like a holiday etc in the future but for normal every day things it has to be in the day
and from my own experience of being sober 15 years and then picking up the drink again well i thought i had it cracked and i was cured and that i would never again drink
how wrong i was, and the price i paid for it was huge. so i dont ever want to make that same mistake again so i stick with my winners and the good news is there still around today sober after 30 40 years some of them, if i would of only kept on coming back from when i was a youngster to now i would be nearly 30 years sober myself if i had instead of the 10. also my life would never of ended up as bad as it did
but there is nothing i can do about it now other than learn from it and make sure it never happens again
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