What date will Dee74 reach 100,000 posts?
Based on my scientific calculations Dee should hit the 100,000 post mark on January 18, 2015. If you look at Dee's statistics he has averaged 35 posts a day since he joined. Subtracting his current post count from 100,000 and then dividing by 35 gives me 150 days to reach 100K, and 150 days from today would be January 18th.
Also consider his latest remark of being away for perhaps two weeks coming up, and also factor in that Dee will catch a spring cold in December that may slow him down for a few days.
Also consider that I may have bribed Dee to get to 100,000 on January 17, 2015.
Member
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: in the city by the bay
Posts: 605
It's hard to argue with Grungehead's brilliant logic but I will factor in the social variations. Thanksgiving and Christmas will bring even more members as will New Year, all of whom will benefit from Dee's care. Swings and roundabouts I know but factoring in the social swings and roundabouts, then closing my eyes and stabbing in the dark and guessing wildly I'll say January 3rd 2015.
Member
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: in the city by the bay
Posts: 605
Did your scientific approach take into consideration that Dee was not always a forum moderator? 35/day is an average. Consider the first couple years or down times. Always throw out the highs and lows. If you are using a bell curve approach you may discover that over the past few years Dee has been posting 47 times a day if you slide the curve with time.
Also consider his latest remark of being away for perhaps two weeks coming up, and also factor in that Dee will catch a spring cold in December that may slow him down for a few days.
Also consider that I may have bribed Dee to get to 100,000 on January 17, 2015.
Also consider his latest remark of being away for perhaps two weeks coming up, and also factor in that Dee will catch a spring cold in December that may slow him down for a few days.
Also consider that I may have bribed Dee to get to 100,000 on January 17, 2015.
Your pick, January 17th, is the 21 year anniversary of the Northridge, Ca earthquake (I was living there at the time attending Cal State, Northridge)...just a date etched in my brain! I have some claustrophobia issues because of it. I went to an open house at my daughter's new school on Wednesday, the teacher paused to talk in a narrow hall and I had parents ahead and behind and inside I could feel the panic swelling up. I looked at the ceiling and whispered to my husband, this group needs to start moving again because I am feeling trapped. If too many people enter an elevator, I have to get out. The earthquake happened at 4:31am and we had no power and I had to crawl out of my apartment in the pitch dark, after being thrown out of the bed, feeling the roof was going to collapse. Ok, sorry! It was kinda healthy revisiting that event.
I have to revise my date. I didn't know Dee was moving and he's offline.
Three posts in two days means I am out of the running for the new Cadillac (that was the prize, right?) - he'll never get to 100,000 by Sept 29 now.
Sabotage!
Three posts in two days means I am out of the running for the new Cadillac (that was the prize, right?) - he'll never get to 100,000 by Sept 29 now.
Sabotage!
Member
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: in the city by the bay
Posts: 605
if I win, I'm gonna send Dee an SF coffee mug...how do you like them apples, that may be better than a bribe...LBrain...
Based on my scientific calculations Dee should hit the 100,000 post mark on January 18, 2015. If you look at Dee's statistics he has averaged 35 posts a day since he joined. Subtracting his current post count from 100,000 and then dividing by 35 gives me 150 days to reach 100K, and 150 days from today would be January 18th.
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