Can you predict a relapse?

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Old 05-06-2019, 10:24 AM
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Can you predict a relapse?

Or an alternative thread title: “Do you ever stop worrying that your loved ones will relapse?”

I’m new here, but have been lurking a while. My dad has been an alcoholic for about 20 years, but it wasn’t until I started reading posts here that I realised that was the most accurate way to describe him.

He quit drinking 11 months ago when he started getting visible symptoms of liver problems so his doctor told him that if he carried on he would die. To his credit, he hasn’t touched a drop since. I have to admit I was quite surprised at this as nothing ever seemed to stop him from getting wasted before and he never seriously indicated that he ever wanted to.

I’m 27, so I’ve got my own place but I seem him every week as we’re quite a close family. Every time a ‘milestone’ hits I start worrying he’ll start again (eg. Christmas and birthdays) as he’ll start moaning that he can’t have a drink with the family.

For example, he came round to my house last Friday and saw my wine cabinet, which was fully stocked (40 bottles). He grumbled that it seemed like a lot and he was looking forward to getting past his 1st anniversary without a drink. Now I’ve been reading posts here I am beginning to understand his relationship with alcohol is different to mine. I see the wine cabinet as simply a way to decorate my kitchen as my boyfriend and I tend drink a bottle of wine between us a week. My dad sees it as a massive trigger as he used to drink 2-3 bottles a day.

I’ve been replaying the scene in my head and starting to worry that it’s a symptom of a relapse coming. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
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Old 05-06-2019, 10:49 AM
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If it is a relapse coming, what can you do? Some questions to ponder as you sort through the possibility of a potential relapse. Can you change his thought processes? Can you change his actions? Can you change your thought processes? Can you change your actions?

Worrying is counterproductive at best. Worrying doesn't stop anything from happening anymore than it means it will to happen. Worry is negative in nature. Evidently I am not very good at multi-tasking because I find that when I focus on positive thoughts, I can't entertain negative thoughts at the same time.
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Old 05-06-2019, 01:58 PM
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Anyone who moans about not being able to have a drink with their family isn't enjoying sobriety and isn't really recovering from alcoholism IMHO. That being said, some things can indicate that a relapse is coming down the pike, but like Nez said, there really isn't anything you can do about it, so it's pretty much a moot question. Keep your focus on yourself and doing what's right for your own mental health and serenity. Your father is responsible for his own, good or bad.
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:08 PM
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Did your dad just quit drinking on his own or did he actually seek treatment in from of counseling/rehab/AA? With the little info you gave us I get the feeling he just quit. And as great as that sounds, it is not usually an effective way for people to quit especially if they have been longtime problem drinkers. He is basically a dry drunk. He isn’t drinking but he has not changed anything about himself and the way he copes with things so basically just “white knuckling” it. My now ex (who did get sober but it was too late to save the relationship) quit on his own about 5 years ago. I had suggested treatment because he had failed several times and this time he had driven home completely wasted. He said he wanted to try on his own. He did quit for a year and relapsed around 13 months sober. He was still the same miserable depressed person but he no longer had his one coping skill. So really it wasn’t much better than drinking. 2.5 years ago he finally sought treatment when I told him I was done otherwise. He also admitted that he felt himself he could no longer do this which is why the ultimatum worked. Anyway, he did 3 months of inpatient rehab and it took at least 7 weeks before he finally was seeing what problem behaviors he had. Recovery is so much more than quitting drinking. Quitting drinking is only a very small part of it. People drink to self medicate, whatever the cause may be. So unless they treat underlying depression anxiety other psych problems and learn new ways of coping with stress and adversity they are not really in recovery. I never understood this until he went to rehab. I always just thought if he just quit drinking things will be fine. But it doesn’t work that way for the vast majority of people. My ex is doing well and I don’t think he has a ton of triggers anymore although our communication has been crap since before he went to rehab that I can’t say for sure. He had said during marriage counseling that he does not akways feel comfortable at parties but not so much because he cannot drink (he claims he no longer feels the need to drink)but more so because other people drink and they get less inhibited and that makes him uncomfortable more than anything (and in our circles everyone drinks) .

I have heard that a lot of times certain behaviors are indicative of impending relapse. So with your dad that could definitely be the case. But like others said, you cannot do anything about it unfortunately. I suppose you could talk to him and mention that you notice that he seems to be uncomfortable around alcohol and maybe it would help if he did counseling or AA but unless he is interested in that himself no one can make him.

I will also say that most doctors are really not very well versed in addiction medicine. I am a PA and before my ex went to rehab I would always tell people to stop drinking and go to AA. If they were really bad I would suggest rehab. But I did not really understand how addiction really works and that there is so much more to it than just removing the drug of choice,. So his doctor may just be happy that he quit drinking and not think much more about it because after all, he no longer drinks so all is well. Chances are his liver functions improved as well so there are no worries in his mind.

So you can try and talk to him but don’t expect much out of it because he just may not be receptive to it and unless he is, nothing anyone will suggest will do any good. If he is moaning about not being able to drink he is not really in recovery. He still hasn’t accepted that he can never touch alcohol again.

My ex had said the second to last time he quit that he understood he could never drink again, except that obviously did not last.

At least you do not live with him but I am sure it is hard to see him like this, he is your dad after all. And even though you do t deal with it on a day to day basis I would still really learn about it because it might help you accept that you have no control over it and that you should not feel guilt about not being able to help him.
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:10 PM
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Is he in any kind of program or did he quit cold turkey with no help?

You may wish to just speak with him about it. Maybe he was concerned you would follow in his footsteps, maybe he did see it and have thoughts. Whatever went through his head, which may have been nothing, you and the wine in your home are not responsible for a relapse or trigger. If that were the case, he would have to never watch sports, look at a billboard, go grocery shopping, etc because alcohol, it's ads and presence are everywhere.

​​​
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Old 05-06-2019, 11:35 PM
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Many thanks for the replies. Much appreciated.

No, my dad didn’t receive any specific treatment for addiction. He has never properly acknowledged that he is an alcoholic and has certainly never referred to himself with that label, so my feeling with something like counselling or AA is that it would down like a lead balloon. However, I think the doctor does at least approach his issues with the knowledge that he is an alcoholic. His doctor has told him off before for eating chocolate with rum in it and drinking non-alcoholic beer as he argues that all of those could trigger him into starting drinking again. Other than that, what is fuelling his abstinence is just knowledge that starting drinking again could kill him. This is combined with the fact that his own father was drinking 750ml of whisky a day and had a very poor quality of life when he passed due to liver problems.

I suppose now that I’ve had the chance to reflect on outside opinion, that’s where the worry really comes from. Not so much that he will relapse (although don’t get me wrong, he was a pain in the bum when he was drinking) but the worry that he could die if he starts again. I have never really trusted him when it’s come to booze. There have been far too many times I’ve asked him not to get wasted at a particular event and he’s said he wouldn’t and then proceeded to flat out ignore me.

All of you are absolutely right though. I have no control over the situation. It is simply anxiety stemming from watching an alcoholic not enjoying being sober.
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Old 05-07-2019, 06:17 AM
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relapse ends with a drink.
i was a couple years sober when my sponsor said to me after a meeting,"youre on a pre meditated drunk." i sure as hell didint believe what that old fart said.
about a month ish later i found myself cleaning up some home repair. hauled a bunch of crap out to the burn pile. decided i was gonna go get me a 12 pack and have a fire. no thought of how long id been sober,the misery of the day after my last drunk, how hard i had to fight the mental obsession, or the amount of footwork i put in to recover.
i decided to take a shower first. in the shower it hit me- i was working on that thought of a 12 pack for months.i had stopped practicing the principles of recovery that i follow-the only thing i was doing was going to meetings-nothing else for recovery. i rested on my laurels.
im very greatful i didnt end that relapse with a drink.
that old fart knew what he was talkin about.
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Old 05-09-2019, 10:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Wotsit View Post
All of you are absolutely right though. I have no control over the situation. It is simply anxiety stemming from watching an alcoholic not enjoying being sober.
It's weird how we don't even realize how much Control plays a part in these dynamics, isn't it?

I used to wonder & then when it happened in my life it was so different than "expected" that I was struck mostly by how much mental time *I* had wasted worrying. He was perfectly fine, I was the one stressing over the unknown.

After that, I started asking myself stuff like.... how will that information help me? What do I know to be TRUE? IF I could predict a relapse, what exactly would I do about it? How would knowing make any of it easier, etc? ... to help shorten the amount of time I was wasting, ruminating over details I could never really know or control.

Even if you manage to guess exactly right, how does knowing it help prepare you in any real way? I hit a lot of dead-ends with these questions & it helped to shift my focus back to me & what I CAN control.

Welcome to SR!
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Old 05-09-2019, 11:20 AM
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on predicting relapse or any other future occurrence....you have exactly 50/50 odds..cuz either it WILL happen or it won't.

but then we get all into causation....was it our prediction that CAUSED the event to occur, when we DO get it right? or was the event going to occur no matter what and we just happened to get the luck of the odds?

if we were gifted with the power of knowing when someone WAS going to relapse.....what exactly are we then supposed to DO about it? chase them around and slap beers out of their hands? lock them in the basement? and how long will that strategy be effective? and isn't that a whole BUNCH of wasted energy trying to control someone else's outcome? since when were WE put in charge???
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Old 05-09-2019, 11:36 AM
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They do have risk assessment scales that mental health workers use for predicting if someone will be a danger to self or others, and I know they have similar ones to predict alcohol relapse. If you google “alcohol relapse scale” and “risk assessment for alcohol relapse”, you will find them. Most of the questions are introspective regarding the person’s own thought process, though, but if you hear the person verbalizing those thoughts, I think you can get some idea of where his head is at.
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Old 05-09-2019, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by AnvilheadII View Post
on predicting relapse or any other future occurrence....you have exactly 50/50 odds..cuz either it WILL happen or it won't.

but then we get all into causation....was it our prediction that CAUSED the event to occur, when we DO get it right? or was the event going to occur no matter what and we just happened to get the luck of the odds?

if we were gifted with the power of knowing when someone WAS going to relapse.....what exactly are we then supposed to DO about it? chase them around and slap beers out of their hands? lock them in the basement? and how long will that strategy be effective? and isn't that a whole BUNCH of wasted energy trying to control someone else's outcome? since when were WE put in charge???
Anvil, this is classic.
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