True Statistics
Member
Thread Starter
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Lost in NC
Posts: 416
True Statistics
Yes, there are liars, damn liars and then statisticians!
But does anyone know the statistical chances of a person recoverying from alcoholism? First year, five years out?
How many beat this demon? Is gender a factor?
But does anyone know the statistical chances of a person recoverying from alcoholism? First year, five years out?
How many beat this demon? Is gender a factor?
Don't get undies in a bunch
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: South Shore MA
Posts: 7,120
Statistics say.....
Who cares what the stats say.
Male or female, young or old, the individual can do it when "they" are ready, willing, and desire to do so.
Stats don't hold water because many women don't get counted.
It is a general understanding that women tend to recover more and faster then men. Mothering instinct maybe?
Well anyway... it is the individual (male or female) that makes the choice and does what needs be done...no matter what any stats say.
Who cares what the stats say.
Male or female, young or old, the individual can do it when "they" are ready, willing, and desire to do so.
Stats don't hold water because many women don't get counted.
It is a general understanding that women tend to recover more and faster then men. Mothering instinct maybe?
Well anyway... it is the individual (male or female) that makes the choice and does what needs be done...no matter what any stats say.
Out of the bog and lovin' it
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: A little left of center
Posts: 20
I heard a lecture sometime ago where the speaker referred to a study that found that roughly a third are successful without relapse, a third succeed after a number of relapses and a third continue to relapse till death. Sorry I can't give any documentation for these numbers. I need to take better notes 
.
Paul
.Paul
Member
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Arizona
Posts: 928
Heard on Dr. Phil (and googled as well) that something like 85% relapse with in the first 4 years following treatment
Don't know how many are fully successful..
But like BEST said..its' truly up to the individual.
Don't know how many are fully successful..
But like BEST said..its' truly up to the individual.
Member
Join Date: May 2004
Location: over yonder
Posts: 1,548
Hi Guy. Good to see you here, how are you doing??
What has been said is true, no one knows who will make it and who won't,
so it makes sense to take one day at a time.
There should be all kinds of info, if you just put alcoholism in the address line. Take care and keep us posted .
What has been said is true, no one knows who will make it and who won't,
so it makes sense to take one day at a time.
There should be all kinds of info, if you just put alcoholism in the address line. Take care and keep us posted .
Belgian Sheepdog Adictee
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: In Today
Posts: 6,101
Hi Guy:
Who is to say who will stay sober and who will relapse. No one knows, not even the individual really.
When I was 29 the doctors, told my husband and my parents that if I did not quit drinking I would be dead by age 30. I didn't get sober until 3 weeks shy of my 36th birthday.
I used AA to learn how to live sober and the first year (although I didn't know it) those in the program with time, who knew me were making bets ($20.00 and up) that I would not make it to a year. I did. Then 2 years, I did, etc. In a few weeks it will be 25 years. Why was I able to stay sober? and some that I came into recovery with could not? Who knows. I believe I had reached my ABSOLUTE BOTTOM.
My recovery has also been helped greatly by Al-anon. So today I am a double winner.
Maybe it's time to go ahead and google 'alcoholism' and do some reading like it has been suggested. Then work on you and take your eyes off of her. Do for you. That way farther down the road, you may not end up in a relationship with a practicing alkie again. Also, by working on you, further down the road, should she obtain and maintain a program of recovery and you want to try again, you just might be more prepared.
JMHO
Love and (((((to all))))),
Who is to say who will stay sober and who will relapse. No one knows, not even the individual really.
When I was 29 the doctors, told my husband and my parents that if I did not quit drinking I would be dead by age 30. I didn't get sober until 3 weeks shy of my 36th birthday.
I used AA to learn how to live sober and the first year (although I didn't know it) those in the program with time, who knew me were making bets ($20.00 and up) that I would not make it to a year. I did. Then 2 years, I did, etc. In a few weeks it will be 25 years. Why was I able to stay sober? and some that I came into recovery with could not? Who knows. I believe I had reached my ABSOLUTE BOTTOM.
My recovery has also been helped greatly by Al-anon. So today I am a double winner.
Maybe it's time to go ahead and google 'alcoholism' and do some reading like it has been suggested. Then work on you and take your eyes off of her. Do for you. That way farther down the road, you may not end up in a relationship with a practicing alkie again. Also, by working on you, further down the road, should she obtain and maintain a program of recovery and you want to try again, you just might be more prepared.
JMHO
Love and (((((to all))))),
Member
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 3,054
Unless you get a reference I'd be very suspicious of percentage statistics. For example take the one qouted by Dr. Phil - without more details it's pretty meaningless:
Would 3 days drinking one week after treatment count, even if there were no further episodes?
Would one drink count as a relapse?
What if there is more than one episode of treatment in the four years making it true they relapsed after the first but untrue they relapsed after the second?
I saw one study done based on a 2 year follow up - they applied the criteria of whether the diagnostic tools for alcohol abuse or dependency would apply to the same people 2 years later. This meant that those drinking but below those levels didn't qualify as relapsed - they found a very wide range including 17% who drank but well under the risk level. Some were abstainant but I can't remember the figure, some were drinking over the risk level but not enough to fill the diagnostic criterias. BUT that didn't measure what had happened in the first year before they retested - who knows?
To know what percentage recover in their lifetimes (ie not dying from alcohol related stuff and becoming sober) you would have to A) get a sample population and test for alcohol dependency - otherwise you would only be counting the percentage going for help. Then B) You would need to keep track of them LIFE LONG! You can't do it in retrospect from alcohol deaths because if someone dies of NON alcohol related causes and doesn't drink - how do you know or record that they were an alcoholic?
You could perhaps take a sample of 100's of people who die for various reasons and then identify all those with previous alcohol problems on their records - then take the percentage who have died due to alcohol problems verses those that die of other causes. As you can see that still leaves holes - what about those who DON'T end up with alcohol problems on their records? Also what about things that are possibly associated but not directly associated like a heart attack?
It's because of problems like these stats for diseases like cancer are usally measured in 5 or 10 year survival rates - not because they think most won't live that long but because it allows a means to gather something reliable with which to compare treatments and offer better prognosis. I would argue that alcohol problems are far more complex to measure than the existance of cancer so not surprisingly finding prognosis stats are a nightmare.
If anyone here finds ANY with a reference from a medical journal or medically led web site (such as NIAAA) I think we should award them a gold medal in research!! I have certainly failed to find anything over a longer period than 2 years.
85% relapse with in the first 4 years following treatment
Would one drink count as a relapse?
What if there is more than one episode of treatment in the four years making it true they relapsed after the first but untrue they relapsed after the second?
I saw one study done based on a 2 year follow up - they applied the criteria of whether the diagnostic tools for alcohol abuse or dependency would apply to the same people 2 years later. This meant that those drinking but below those levels didn't qualify as relapsed - they found a very wide range including 17% who drank but well under the risk level. Some were abstainant but I can't remember the figure, some were drinking over the risk level but not enough to fill the diagnostic criterias. BUT that didn't measure what had happened in the first year before they retested - who knows?
To know what percentage recover in their lifetimes (ie not dying from alcohol related stuff and becoming sober) you would have to A) get a sample population and test for alcohol dependency - otherwise you would only be counting the percentage going for help. Then B) You would need to keep track of them LIFE LONG! You can't do it in retrospect from alcohol deaths because if someone dies of NON alcohol related causes and doesn't drink - how do you know or record that they were an alcoholic?
You could perhaps take a sample of 100's of people who die for various reasons and then identify all those with previous alcohol problems on their records - then take the percentage who have died due to alcohol problems verses those that die of other causes. As you can see that still leaves holes - what about those who DON'T end up with alcohol problems on their records? Also what about things that are possibly associated but not directly associated like a heart attack?
It's because of problems like these stats for diseases like cancer are usally measured in 5 or 10 year survival rates - not because they think most won't live that long but because it allows a means to gather something reliable with which to compare treatments and offer better prognosis. I would argue that alcohol problems are far more complex to measure than the existance of cancer so not surprisingly finding prognosis stats are a nightmare.
If anyone here finds ANY with a reference from a medical journal or medically led web site (such as NIAAA) I think we should award them a gold medal in research!! I have certainly failed to find anything over a longer period than 2 years.
On a tear
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Volcano Country!
Posts: 3,221
What equus says - absolutely. I've searched and searched and find some studies of some groups, often categorized by age or drug of choice or both. And these are usually NOT from the general population.
I try to remember that until after I quit drinking, I would NEVER have identified myself as alcoholic - not even on a private survey. Looking back, though, I would say now that I was alcoholic before I ever took a drink... but that is subjective.
For me, the stats are that I got sober.... 100% today.
I heard the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 stats at all the kids' rehabs - perhaps Hazelden can say where it came from, so many of the rehabs are modeled after them. And the way it was presented was that those thirds were only of those who got to treatment... we all know a lot never get to treatment, but get sober or die active anyway.
Good luck on your search, please post anything you can find that is at all understandable.
I try to remember that until after I quit drinking, I would NEVER have identified myself as alcoholic - not even on a private survey. Looking back, though, I would say now that I was alcoholic before I ever took a drink... but that is subjective.
For me, the stats are that I got sober.... 100% today.
I heard the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 stats at all the kids' rehabs - perhaps Hazelden can say where it came from, so many of the rehabs are modeled after them. And the way it was presented was that those thirds were only of those who got to treatment... we all know a lot never get to treatment, but get sober or die active anyway.
Good luck on your search, please post anything you can find that is at all understandable.
Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Parker, CO
Posts: 495
I read somewhere taht only about 10% of alcoholics seek help for their disease. So, there are a lot of untreated alcoholics out there. But there are many who have recovered, so recovery is definitely good if it is wanted....
Member
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: behind the viewfinder...
Posts: 6,278
I wouldn't believe any statistics. As those above have pointed out, stats can only count those who seek help. By the same token, relapse stats can only count those who seek help for relapse. And, applying any so-called stats to one individual gets you no closer to understanding that individual.
Laurie has some very good advice. This is what I am doing. My husband has been sober 8 months now. I do not know if he will stay sober or, even if he does, if his behavior will change enough from how it was before so that I can live with him. I am learning to take care of myself. And, I don't mean financially. I mean that I am learning how to be aware of my needs and my insecurities. I'm learning that I can be a complete and whole person whether I am in a relationship, or not. And when I get into another relationship (with my husband or someone else), I will still be an individual all on my own. I will not get so wrapped up in another that I lose sight of myself. I will separate myself from those who wish to hurt me long before any deep damage is done. I'm not there yet, but this is where I am going. I doubt if there are any stats for success or failure in this, either. But, I know I will succeed.
L
Originally Posted by laurie6781
Then work on you and take your eyes off of her. Do for you. That way farther down the road, you may not end up in a relationship with a practicing alkie again. Also, by working on you, further down the road, should she obtain and maintain a program of recovery and you want to try again, you just might be more prepared.
L
Member
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Parker, CO
Posts: 495
I think the rate who drink within one year after rehab is pretty high, but you know usually the rehab interrupts the drinking cycle for many and they do not find it as pleasurable as they once did.
Member
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sussex, NJ
Posts: 1,331
I don't know, they said when my son was diagnosed with cancer that the statistics showed with the treatment he received he has a 100% chance of recovery. He died. I put my faith in God and the people who are going through it.
So statistics mean squat to me and I agree with best ... who care what the stats say anyway?
So statistics mean squat to me and I agree with best ... who care what the stats say anyway?
Member
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Sussex, NJ
Posts: 1,331
Originally Posted by meli2005
I have to agree with Judy. I can't believe they told you 100%, as far as I am concerned in medicine, nothing is 100%.
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