What is the actual recovery rate?
 

What is the actual recovery rate for alcoholics who WORK the AA program? Other alcohol recovery programs? Are there any published, professional studies about recovery rates?

hindsfoot.org/recout01.pdf

No idea, but you might have luck asking in the AA section.

This comes up from time to time, often provoking a debate over sources, methodology, etc. I'm unaware of any widely accepted rates for AA or any other approach. And it seems like attempting to focus on people who "work" the program requires a subjective, qualitative analysis, not a quantitative one.

I don't really care about stats, honestly. What matters to me is that AA has a 100% success rate for Sapling, Mark75, and many others here. SR and AVRT have a 100% success rate for me. Those are the stats I find most relevant. :)

To elaborate on this a little, what would you considered "truly working the program" and what would you consider "recovered"? I'm not a statistician, or a social scientist, so I'm not aware of all the methodological tricks but I can tell you that a professional study would either have to rely entirely on self-reporting or need to look for quantifiable signs of recovery.

As far as self-reporting goes, I doubt anyone would say anything other than "I am genuinely working the steps with my sponsor and feel I am going in the right direction", it proves nothing. As far as quantifiable signs go, there is no way for an outsider to even observe resolve or frame of mind, let alone quantify it.

Consider that a man may have made a firm and lasting decision five days after a bender and another may be shaky and very close to a relapse after five years of sobriety... but as far as any sensible metric would go, the first would be a failure and the second a success. While you may know you'll never drink again, and I'll believe you if you tell me so, there is no objective proof of it until after you die.

So I don't know, probably better to just try it out and see if it works for you. As ReadyAndAble pointed out, there are many for whom it does...

I don't think there is any way you could ever tell for AA....I've seen a lot of people come and go....I've seen people die. It's not very high...I know that. For people that work the program as laid out in the book and continue to practice it I haven't seen anyone fail yet. Not alot of people do that....Very few that do. Here is a thought for you.....This site has 105,500 members....Right now there are 90 members online.....How many of them are sober and moved on?.....How many of them are drinking and using right now?.....How many of them are dead?....There is no real way to know that.....AA is like that.

There is one such study which is often referenced on this message board. I believe it is called The Orange Papers.

There are programs and people that are real anti-AA....It's a free program and it has worked for millions....That's going to bring dislike with it. I take those orange papers with a grain of salt. Do I know people that have 50 years sober in AA?...I know two of them well. That's just in my meeting. I have a lot of friends with a lot of years....I'm sober with it. They don't have any clue what the stats are....I'm not real crazy about people that push that stuff either.....But haters will hate.

From what I have seen in my 15 months in AA.....People that work the program as laid out in the book.....100%

It's my experience that once the Orange Papers are invoked, the end is nigh.
We don't actually allow links to that site because it causes so much rancour here....
Please remember that in future.

Here's the rule I want everyone to consider:

D

I don't pay much mind to it Dee.

I have seen the numbers cited there. They compared the number of 24-hr, 1-week, 1-year, etc... chips that AA groups use.

The flaws in this method of assessing success are so obvious as to be laughable.

Ok, this thread is not about the Orange Papers.

Please direct your posts to the *other* OP - the original poster and his question.

D

As has been pointed out there is a lot of difficulty in determining a success rate for any recovery program. Who is counted part of the program? What is success?

Ultimately, your experience counts for more than statistics. No statistic can tell you what will work for you and what will not.

Whether it is the numbers in the orange papers or the big book, the numbers all seem a bit wonky to me and short on any real clear methodology. Rather than bemoaning this state of things, I think it is better to think of the lack of statistical evidence as liberating. You do not have to measure your experience of any program against any statistical standard--which is a very good thing indeed.

I think there's no way to know for sure, there are too many variables. I know AA has helped many people and it's helping me.

I don't know or care what the success rate is for the various recovery programs. I know what the success rate is if you don't try...Zero.

Thank you so much Lance2525!

That was so helpful in many ways: the history of AA on measuring recovery, the likely reason for the 90 meetings in 90 days guideline, the methodology issues, the problems prescreening too many AA members out and too many in, etc.

I did find the report quite useful, especially at numbered page 24 (bottom):

"In summary, the data reveal that:

 Of those in their first month of AA meeting attendance, 26% will still be attending AA at the end of that year.

 Of those in their fourth month of AA meeting attendance (i.e. have stayed beyond 90-days), 56% will still be attending AA at the end of that year.

 Other Survey results show even better AA retention rates after the first year.

 The 2004 Survey showed an increase in the length of sobriety over the 2001 Survey (as has every triennial survey since 1983).

 As of the 2004 Survey, long-term AA sobriety was so prevalent that the "Greater Than Five Years" range of previous surveys was subdivided into: 5-10 Years (14%) , >10 Years (36%), > 5 Years (50%).

 For growth of AA sobriety ranges, the 1983 Survey showed 25% of AA members sober over 5 years and the 2004 Survey showed 50% of AA members sober over 5 years.

 For growth of AA sobriety averages, the 1983 Survey found the average AA member sober for 4 years and the 2004 Survey found the average AA member sober for more than 8 years."

:)

This chart was good too and brings great hope for recovery in working the program, thanks Lance2525:

Attachment 17386

I'm glad this thread was posted. I was told by a psychologist a few years ago, there is a higher "success" rate for compulsive gambling than for alcoholics.

I didn't join a SR class - should be in the June 2012 class.....somehow, I missed reading about it. Anyway, the other night I decided to go back and reread the June 2012 class threads. I was disappointed / sad, to see how many folks hadn't posted in a while and it got me to wondering the same thing this thread is about.

I also agree with one of the above posts, no one will be successful , if they don't try.

I go to AA meetings that are full of sober people; and I love them and the program. It's the only thing I need to know.
I don't see anything that even distantly "comes close" to what it offers.
I do know that if you don't treat this horrid disease your chances of beating it alone are pretty close to zero.

That's all I need to know; or do.