What is the actual recovery rate?
Recovered
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 1,129
Originally Posted by Titanic 
What is the actual recovery rate for alcoholics who WORK the AA program? Other alcohol recovery programs? Are there any published, professional studies about recovery rates?
Member
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Central Alabama
Posts: 13
Until I decided I was never going to drink again, AA or any other program wasn't going to work. I think the percentage of people who try AA thinking it will make the desire to drink go away, and then quit the program because it doesn't work like that, has to be high.
Personally, I quit without AA, but I can see from reading this board how it has helped millions of people stay sober, once they made up their minds to quit drinking.
Personally, I quit without AA, but I can see from reading this board how it has helped millions of people stay sober, once they made up their minds to quit drinking.
Member
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: East Coast, The States
Posts: 12,162
From what I have read and gathered, covering any method used, it is an exponential relationship. In other words the longer you maintain a continuous abstinence from alcohol, the higher likeliehood of sustained recovery. If you have four years sobriety, the likeliehood of sobriety for life is extremely high.
This may seem an obvious conclusion on the surface, but, I think it is actually more complex than it first appears. I think there are many reasons for this relationship between success rate and time. Some reasons are physical, and some are cognitive, emotional, spiritual and social.
But I'd like to think it is because the rewards of sobriety multiply exponentially as time passes.
This may seem an obvious conclusion on the surface, but, I think it is actually more complex than it first appears. I think there are many reasons for this relationship between success rate and time. Some reasons are physical, and some are cognitive, emotional, spiritual and social.
But I'd like to think it is because the rewards of sobriety multiply exponentially as time passes.
Member
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: UK
Posts: 1,145
Originally Posted by Sapling
I will say one thing I've noticed on this site....I've seen people that have gone the AVRT route because it sounds like an easier path to take...No meetings....Promise yourself you are done and you never drink again...I see a lot of people with a few months sober saying how great it is and then they are gone. I think if it was that easy AA would have closed it's doors....My homegroup keeps growing....I see new people every day.
Also, I'd say that equally as many people come to SR who use AA and then disappear. Like has already been said, just because someone disappears doesn't mean they're not sober any more.
This isn't meant to be a post for or against AA or AVRT... so please don't take this the wrong way, I'm not trying to argue! Just wanted to point out that people using AVRT successfully are probably not doing so because they started off thinking it was an easy ticket.
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Bethlehem, PA.
Posts: 1,781
The problem with all programs is that none of them can really instill motivation and desire. Without those 2 key ingredients it's going to be an uphill battle. The middle of the road person, the one that wants to quit, knows they should knock it off for good but also wants to drink is where the real problem is. Face it for some giving up the social and mood altering aspects of it all is the hardest part of the equation.
The next question I would pose to all is whether or not one method is superior to another in changing the way a person thinks? Maybe in those cases 12 step programs are a better fit. I don't really know, just something to think about.
I do know that mindfulness and AVRT based programs work best for the crowd that truely wants to quit more than they want to drink. For the middle of the road crowd I have my doubts. Any thoughts?
The next question I would pose to all is whether or not one method is superior to another in changing the way a person thinks? Maybe in those cases 12 step programs are a better fit. I don't really know, just something to think about.
I do know that mindfulness and AVRT based programs work best for the crowd that truely wants to quit more than they want to drink. For the middle of the road crowd I have my doubts. Any thoughts?
Member of SMART Recovery
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,722
As my AA sponsor once said: "if somebody wants to drink, there's nothing we can do for them, and if they want to be sober, there's nothing we can do to stop them."
And I think that's basically true of all programs, including the one I gravitate towards. I think they HELP. I don't think they create sobriety in someone who isn't willing to make some serious changes.
As far as recovery rates, we actually have a good idea of that, from the NESARC study which was done in 2001-2. Here is a link to the study: NIAAA Publications
Here is a cut and paste from the abstract of the study (emphasis mine)
Aims:
To investigate the prevalence and correlates of recovery from Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition
(DSM–IV) alcohol dependence by examining the past-year status of individuals who met the criteria for prior-to-past-year (PPY) dependence.
Design: Cross-sectional, retrospective survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults age 18 and older (first wave of a planned longitudinal survey). Methods: This analysis is based on data from the 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), in which data were collected in personal interviews conducted with one randomly selected adult in each sample household. A subset of the NESARC sample (total n = 43,093), consisting of 4,422 U.S.adults age 18 and older classified with PPY DSM–IV alcohol dependence [alcohol dependence is the technical term for addiction, and is differentiated in the DSM-IV from alcohol abuse, which is milder], were evaluated with respect to their past-year recovery status: past-year dependence, partial remission, full remission, asymptomatic risk drinking, abstinent recovery (AR), and nonabstinent recovery (NR). Correlates of past-year status were examined in bivariate analyses and using multivariate logistic regression models. Findings: Of people classified with PPY alcohol dependence, 25.0 percent were still classified as dependent in the past year; 27.3 percent were classified as being in partial remission; 11.8 percent were asymptomatic risk drinkers who demonstrated a pattern of drinking that put them at risk of relapse; 17.7 percent were low-risk drinkers; and 18.2 percent were abstainers. Only 25.5 percent of people with PPY dependence ever received treatment. Being married was associated positively with the odds of both AR and NR, and ethanol intake was negatively associated with both. Severity of dependence increased the odds of AR but decreased the odds of NR. The odds of AR (but not NR) increased with age and female gender but were decreased by the presence of a personality disorder. Treatment history modified the effects of college attendance/graduation, age at onset, and interval since onset on the odds of recovery. Conclusions: There is a substantial level of recovery from alcohol dependence. Information on factors associated with recovery may be useful in targeting appropriate treatment modalities.
And I think that's basically true of all programs, including the one I gravitate towards. I think they HELP. I don't think they create sobriety in someone who isn't willing to make some serious changes.
As far as recovery rates, we actually have a good idea of that, from the NESARC study which was done in 2001-2. Here is a link to the study: NIAAA Publications
Here is a cut and paste from the abstract of the study (emphasis mine)
Aims:
To investigate the prevalence and correlates of recovery from Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition
(DSM–IV) alcohol dependence by examining the past-year status of individuals who met the criteria for prior-to-past-year (PPY) dependence.
Design: Cross-sectional, retrospective survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults age 18 and older (first wave of a planned longitudinal survey). Methods: This analysis is based on data from the 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), in which data were collected in personal interviews conducted with one randomly selected adult in each sample household. A subset of the NESARC sample (total n = 43,093), consisting of 4,422 U.S.adults age 18 and older classified with PPY DSM–IV alcohol dependence [alcohol dependence is the technical term for addiction, and is differentiated in the DSM-IV from alcohol abuse, which is milder], were evaluated with respect to their past-year recovery status: past-year dependence, partial remission, full remission, asymptomatic risk drinking, abstinent recovery (AR), and nonabstinent recovery (NR). Correlates of past-year status were examined in bivariate analyses and using multivariate logistic regression models. Findings: Of people classified with PPY alcohol dependence, 25.0 percent were still classified as dependent in the past year; 27.3 percent were classified as being in partial remission; 11.8 percent were asymptomatic risk drinkers who demonstrated a pattern of drinking that put them at risk of relapse; 17.7 percent were low-risk drinkers; and 18.2 percent were abstainers. Only 25.5 percent of people with PPY dependence ever received treatment. Being married was associated positively with the odds of both AR and NR, and ethanol intake was negatively associated with both. Severity of dependence increased the odds of AR but decreased the odds of NR. The odds of AR (but not NR) increased with age and female gender but were decreased by the presence of a personality disorder. Treatment history modified the effects of college attendance/graduation, age at onset, and interval since onset on the odds of recovery. Conclusions: There is a substantial level of recovery from alcohol dependence. Information on factors associated with recovery may be useful in targeting appropriate treatment modalities.
Sober Alcoholic
Join Date: Aug 2011
Posts: 3,539
“Recovery rates” are often talked about as if alcoholics were all of the same “type”. We all start the journey of recovery from slightly different starting points. We have different challenges to face. For example, some have more of a genetic predisposition to alcoholism than others. For some alcohol relieved symptoms of depression, anxiety, and/or PTSD. For still others “personality disorders” present their own unique challenges.
Aside from the methods invented solely by an individual (without reference to any “external method”) I believe that all “methods” present a good chance of success (provided that the individual is highly motivated to change their drinking).
Where I think AA has an advantage over other methods is with the alcoholic who drinks to block thoughts and feelings regarding their own past behavior. This is the sort of alcoholic who enters a downward spiral that is self-sustaining, and for which the AA steps are particularly effective. These folks might have any combination of genetic, psychological, or other factors in addition, but on this dimension IMO, AA has a better chance of success.
I believe also that there are advantages in other methods for individuals with other combinations of factors. I hope that one day the question of what works best for these different combinations of factors will be teased out. That will require open-indedness, as wll as a bit of thinking outside the box.
Aside from the methods invented solely by an individual (without reference to any “external method”) I believe that all “methods” present a good chance of success (provided that the individual is highly motivated to change their drinking).
Where I think AA has an advantage over other methods is with the alcoholic who drinks to block thoughts and feelings regarding their own past behavior. This is the sort of alcoholic who enters a downward spiral that is self-sustaining, and for which the AA steps are particularly effective. These folks might have any combination of genetic, psychological, or other factors in addition, but on this dimension IMO, AA has a better chance of success.
I believe also that there are advantages in other methods for individuals with other combinations of factors. I hope that one day the question of what works best for these different combinations of factors will be teased out. That will require open-indedness, as wll as a bit of thinking outside the box.
Iceberg Ahead!
Thread Starter
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Out at Sea
Posts: 1,177
Wow, thanks for all the insight and references today too (including that survey study, onlythetruth)! It's all helped me reframe, refine and correct some of my thinking. Your experiences are very suportive and moving. 
Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Upstate New York
Posts: 1,928
Originally Posted by PaperDolls
I just focus on my own personal stats. In the end, that's all that matters.
Forward we go...side by side-Rest In Peace
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Serene In Dixie
Posts: 36,740
Originally Posted by Titanic
Wow, thanks for all the insight and references today too (including that survey study, onlythetruth)! It's all helped me reframe, refine and correct some of my thinking. Your experiences are very suportive and moving.
all my best as you move forward....
Thanks everyone for shareing and it's time to let this go
Please find someone else who needs your assistance...
This thread is over.
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