That statistic stuff...
 

Every other day someone pops up on SR stating some sort of dire statistics for the success rate of AA. I've often times wanted to say something to the effect of...

If the success rate of AA is so frighteningly low, why then would I be able to easily gather 50 alcoholics who I know personally, sober more than 5 years in AA, within a few hours notice? If there were a good enough cause, I could quickly and easily gather 100 or more. All of which AA has helped to maintain over 5 years sobriety? All within a 10 mile radius, also. Can the people trashing AA do that with the 70% success rate they claim outside of AA? I sure can't. I only personally know 2 people in my entire life who have done that. Only others I know of are from this forum.

This post is inspired by one of the blogs (articles) that I've noticed linked to the forum over the past couple of weeks. It's very well written, yet cleverly slams AA and states bold faced lies regarding statistics, and a handful of other things AA related. Says that 70% of people get sober without AA. Really? Where does this stuff come from? I urge people to read some of those blogs. Some are helpful. Many are potentially dangerous, IMO.

I've stated countless times here that I never even suspected that anyone around me in AA was taking any kind of statistical information. I'm sober 31 years, but I know I'm not included in any statistical information. I don't know anyone else with long term sobriety who's been included in any statistical information. Anyone here? I know AA general service puts out some sort of numbers, but I think even for them that's absurd. Do they do that by coin sales? I would also love to hear the statistics behind people who attend AA, and practice all 12 steps.

I put this in the 12 step section for obvious reasons. Not too sure how this is gonna go, but had the desire to vent a little after reading that article. It basically said you have a much better chance of getting sober if you stay away from AA, than if you go. Does Seafield post these blogs?

Im not good when it comes to statistics,
however I do stand strong with what
has worked for me for the past 24 yrs
of many one days at a time sober.

The AA program consisting of steps
and principles as my guideline to living
a healthy, happy and honest life.

It works for me because I worked it
and continue to work it on a daily bases. :)

Just my thoughts as always.

AA has worked for over 26 years for me.It`s the best thing going for sobering up alcoholics.Millions have got sober and stayed sober in AA since it`s start.I can`t see those results anywhere else outside of AA.I think it was Dr Bob that said,let the results speak for themselves.

Yup, I always wondered how data was collected from an anonymous group and not all groups use AA chips (many vendors out there--just look at your sidebar). I'm of the belief that AA has helped by giving folks who really want to quit a place to gather, share and improve. We can of course never know but I believe the numbers have and will always be the same with or without AA. Genome manipulation looks promising but for now "any which way we can" is a good motto. Demonizing it like tobacco would be great but our right to cut loose is a fairly engrained social more--I don't see that happening. I don't use AA so much but I can't say it's bad or good. If it helps you I am happy for you.

The only statistics I care about is:

I'm 100 percent sober 100 percent of the time since I 100 percent quit drinking more than 14 years ago.

Going on 34 years and have similar experience as the rest who have posted so far.

This thread has me thinking about all the people "I came in with". As many people as I know with long term sobriety, where are the rest of them. People move, leave aa, leave aa then come back. How many of them are sober today? I don't know.

Also, FWIW I found this survey form GSO: http://www.aa.org/assets/en_US/p-48_...shipsurvey.pdf. I'm the alrernate GSR for my home group and will ask about it at the next Manhattan GSR meeting.

-allan

My inspiration for this thread came from here Non 12 Step Rehab Programs: A Veritable Option .

I have no issue with alternatives to AA. I do have issue with people who attempt to lure others away from AA, which is what this person is clearly trying to do.

Stats are meaningless but it doesn`t stop people from spouting them either in support of AA or to make a case against the program.

I`m sober that`s what counts.

Hi.
AA was the method I used to sober up 36 years ago and continue to use to this day. My meetings mostly consist of noon time meetings which usually have around 7-9 people with over 30, a couple of which have +40 years who go regularly along with some in the +20 year group. This from around 30-40 people.

This may not be an accurate picture in general as I live in a tourist and retirement area with probably about 20-30+ million within a 200 mile radius.
Whatever the true number is I see far too many not making it for whatever reason.
Over the years I or anyone I ever asked had ever been included in any sober poll. I’ve been an active GSR and Intergroup rep for a fair amount of time.

One thing that may be overlooked, but I don’t know if it makes a difference, we live in a mobile society where the average home ownership is around 5 years so a lot of moving is involved.

BE WELL

Good stuff Joe!

I know in my house 100% of alcoholics are indeed recovering nicely, today. ;)


Little humor injection here........ (very little, but) It strikes me that in recovery we say with a level of pride that we can amass an army of drunks if needed!!!!

God, I truly love alcoholics and AA :)

I personally know 2 people that tried AA then got a measure of reasonable sobriety when they decided to leave it alone. I still like to keep in touch, they're good guys.

There are folks on the 'Alcoholism' board that clearly manage with other methods, and I use one other site that has a good chunk of non AA sober folks.

But the vast majority of people I know, people I meet online, and people I respect got sober through AA...at least for part of the journey. That's good enough for me.

"Anti-AA" seems to be a viable program, or at least motivation, for some. But man...it seems painful from this side of the fence. Incredible how many people take objection to AA, then set about creating their own 'special' program and trying to save the world from the dangers of AA. Very few practical suggestions or depth of message, just gripes about what recovery SHOULDN'T be about. If all these folks got together and came up with a non-AA solution they could agree on, they would no doubt have the basis of a formidable recovery community.

P

I've never been involved with AA but I think one reason the statistics may get distorted is that many people get sent to AA as the default option by courts, family, employers or whatever who need to get sober but have no real desire to do so. Obviously, these people are unlikely to achieve sobriety. Other methods may have more ability to cherry pick their participants from people who are truly motivated to stop.

Follow up thought:
It strikes me the Traditions, and the principles of Anonymity and Humility are so important here.

If other groups or individuals want to tear themselves apart by clamouring for attention, defending themselves and attacking others - let them. We can quietly go about the business of staying sober and passing a message of recovery.

P

I know a ton of people in AA with long-term sobriety. I have seen a ton of people who disappeared from AA.

I credit AA with keeping me sober. Not sure what it all means and do not spend much time thinking about it.

I'm not slamming AA; I try very hard to respect everyone's recovery, but I'm sure I could find 50 to 100 people who have years of sobriety without AA or the 12 Steps. It would take awhile because while I could easily locate sober people by visiting various AA meetings, finding sober people who simply live their lives as non-drinkers are harder to locate. They don't belong to any group of former drinkers, they probably don't talk very much about their sobriety, and they don't congregate in known locations.

However, even with that being the case, I know a half dozen people who quit drinking without AA, and have been sober for decades. And any rational person would have considered these people to be "real alcoholics". I think most of us simply don't know these people because unless they tell us about their sobriety and their past drinking behaviors we aren't aware of their existence.

I've been sober for 28 years and would never show up in any statistics. Personally, I don't trust any statistics in any area knowing how they can be manipulated for various agendas. I quit a job that required me to do just that preparing fiscal reports to justify budgets. My conscience couldn't take it any more as each manipulated number represented an affected human life. Manipulating numbers has become an occupation in itself and its rampant today. Those who've done it unscrupulously have made all statistics undependable. Just one example of the harm its done is the drop off in charitable donations because people just don't trust the stats and, sadly, rightly so.

AA or something else.....whatever works you stick with it!

.

I'm glad you brought this up, Joe.

I have seen enough AA-bashing, subtle and otherwise, to last me for a lifetime.

I decided a while back to just post on this thread with respect to getting and staying sober.

I will post on the Pop Culture thread regarding stories which interest me, or on the Book thread, or the Fitness Lovers thread.

I have a lot of respect for anyone who tries to get clean or sober using whatever method or program he or she believes is best.

The only thing I can contribute, though, is my ESH from working the AA program.

Most importantly, however, it isn't good for my sobriety to get bogged down in reading about other people's programs or notions of recovery.

I wish them the best, but I don't care to participate in their discussions.

Until I started reading SR, I had never even heard of the term "AV".

I had to google it.

I am happy for the folks who get help from it, but I will stick with what has worked for me since 1988.

Statistics show that 70% of statistics are made up on the spot. :lmao

I myself find it easy to believe that only 3 - 8% of those in recovery (any recovery program) are counted in the success group. Here's why?

1. Most people who go into recovery just want to achieve some short term goal; like getting their drivers license back. Most of them do in fact achieve their goal, yet go back to drinking because as far as they are concerned - it's mission accomplished. In their mind they are a success. However, they are still counted as a failure from the perspective of the statistician.

2. Many others are forced into recovery by authority figures and have no intention of staying sober any longer than they have to. They pay a lot of lip-service to recovery, but never give it an honest try.

3. Still others like myself, take many tries to succeed. Anyone observing me in my first 3 years would have counted me a failure dozens of times before counting me a success. And even then, I would have been counted only once in the plus column. My personal success rate would appear about 3% if my full story were not known.
:dig