First, it's great that you are posting your thoughts, and thinking things through. I am definitely in the camp of people who thought moderation was something I could do, and I could for a few days, but even during those few days the thoughts of how much can I drink and stick to my moderation plan were bouncing through my head. Then a few days passed, and I thought well, I can have a little more, then the bargaining began, and soon enough I was right back to where I was.
Try to just focus on the moment, mindfulness really helped me. You are not drinking for today, and then repeat the same thing tomorrow. Over time the thoughts of drinking lessen, and then one day you will realize you didn't even think about alcohol that day.
I now have over two and a half years sober, and I woukdn trade it for anything.
You can do this Truth, it is really one day at a time.