The thing I noticed about people who moderate is that it is because they have a natural aversion to the effects of alcohol, not because they have implemented some plan.
I only have an aversion to drinking when I am 100% sober. As soon as I drink, drinking more sounds like a great idea. I have no natural aversion to the effects of alcohol. I know there are some sources that report a very small percentage of problem drinkers can go back to moderate drinking; but the odds are low, so very, very low, that it is not worth the risk.