Well, I do believe people who obsess over not drinking are more likely to drink than people who decide to stop drinking, and then make sure they're doing and thinking about other things.
Some people will go a whole day doing nothing but thinking about not drinking. Those people are in the most danger.
But still, this addiction can really surprise you. You can think it's totally behind you, and then something really painful can happen that turns into you drinking like a fish for a month, wondering who you are and taking all that confidence away from you.
You have to be mentally prepared for the sharp turn in the road that could come up. Sometimes you've figured it out for the routine you've got now, but when the routine changes you become vulnerable again and have to figure it out again. Whether you've learned how to not drink in hard times, and suddenly things look great and you 'celebrate,' or you've learned how to not drink when things are going well, and things suddenly take a nose dive and you think you'll drink to 'weather the storm.' Either way, it kicks your butt for a lot longer than you planned, and makes you question whether you were really over this problem.