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Old 02-05-2015, 10:18 PM
  # 95 (permalink)  
Carlotta
Behold the power of NO
 
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Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: WA
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Originally Posted by RobbyRobot View Post
The Monty Hall problem and the prisoner problem have different parameters and probabilities in their setups. Since "C" was for sure not pardoned, then only "A" or "B" had any probability of pardon, and so since only "A" or "B" but not both, it then becomes 50-50.

I too call BS.

I tend to agree. If prisoner a has 2/3 chance of making it by switching then prisoner b has also 2/3 chance of survival by switching since the only difference between them two is that one is evil (but the warden does not know which one) so they are exactly on the same footing and the same story could have been written about b and according to your computations, b by going to cell a would also have had a 2/3 chance of making it.

2/3 plus 2/3 does NOT equal one.

Anyway, I still think he should have done b in
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