didn't do the fire thing but when our hair froze it was time to come in...
okay - let me just call bullS on this one. I totally agree with the monty hall explanation - never heard of it by the way. Sure it works if you get three tries at it.
But in the scenario where there is only one choice - one attempt - it is 50/50. The guy can't come back next week and try to win a pardon is he chooses incorrectly.
It's totally random in this case. In a one and done situation, the law of averages means squat.