LBrain

so based on that little ditty, if he stays his chances will always be one in 3, but if he changes his chances are 1 in 2...

based on nothing else - just numbers - staying where he is he has a better chance. By relocating, the whole formula is then started over, he has a 50/50 chance. But it actually does not matter. The starting variables have changed.

however, even though it started at 1/3 regardless of the start it is now 1/2. it doesn't matter.

say a football team has won 9 of 12 games with 6 games left. what are their chances of ending up over .500? 6 weeks later they are now 9 and 8 with one last game to play. What are their chances of ending up over .500 now?

They are not the same as they were six weeks ago. Same thing for the guy in the cell. Not the same as yesterday folks - a "game" has already been played since then.


annataboy - I disagree, because it is already understood C is no longer in the game, that 'shell' has been removed from the game. You are looking at it from an uninformed observer's viewpoint. You have to look at it from the informed participant's viewpoint - from this viewpoint, there are only two shells.
It's like the stupid briefcase came, the more there are eliminated the better the chances because each round starts with a new number.