Originally Posted by
Purpleknight 
In the beginning every prisoner had the same 1/3 chance of a pardon:
-A - 1/3
-B - 1/3
-C - 1/3
Once we know C will not be pardoned, the probability doesn't become 1/2 or 50%:
-Prisoner A staying where he is will remain at the original 1/3 chance
-Swapping with Prisoner B increases the chance to 2/3 - So Swapping is the way forward!!
In probability terms if it was 100 boxes with 1 box having a $1 million cheque, if you chose 1 box at the beginning, then 98 boxes containing nothing were removed, would you swap? yes because there was more probability in the beginning, 99 out of 100 boxes that you chose a box with no cheque in it, this makes it more statistical, using people in the problem blinds the numbers I think!!
In the same way the probability surely increases with the info that 1 prisoner won't get a pardon if he switches!!
That's my best shot, but I could be wrong!!
Just can't wrap my brain around it.......
So, if you started with a 1 in a 100 or 1% chance and took out 98 empty boxes, I just cannot see that the probability now isn't 1 in 2 or 50% and switching doesn't matter?!?!? How can then switching based on events that have already transpired affect the outcome of the draw????
Why is it any different than simply saying I have two boxes and one has money in it. Isn't the probability at that point 1 out of 2 regardless of switching ones choice or not???