okay, now that I've cleaned the driveway... it's 20 degrees and a fine snow coming down fast...
The problem is exactly the same whether the guard said, 'C' or 'B'. He has no knowledge of possible switch so saying B or C is the same to him (guard). If he said 'B' was not being pardoned of course it's a no brainer.
If he told 'A' he was not being pardoned, again , switch. His chances would still be 50/50 - not 100% death.
hey! What happened to my earlier response???? good thing I copied it before I went outside
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I can't - yes I can - believe this is where I come first when I woke up.
Okay, I read it a second time. Based on all things being equal, the chances are 50/50. However, the fact that the guard confided in the guy in 'A' but could only tell him it wasn't 'C' - couldn't say who the lucky man was, he is better off staying put. If he was not to be set free, executed, the guard would have (could have) told him.
The guard basically told him it is you or him but didn't say you. STAY IN 'A".
The guard by definition could not tell him two people because by process of elimination he would telling who the winner was. So by telling him anything other than he is not being pardoned, he basically told him he is.
so yes, a lot depends on whether or not the guard is a dick. But staying in 'A' is the clear best choice. I think...
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Looks like my two posts got intertwined/mixed up. Not only staying in his cell 'A' the best choice, it is the only winning choice.