heh.......I can get myself absolutely confident that I can keep myself sober. It's totally logical and makes complete sense.
The only problem with that line of thought though, is that I've had it hundreds of times before and never was able to pull it off.
Many can....but many can't. It seems to depend upon how "alcoholic" you are - and nobody can tell you where you stand.
MY history is pretty clear...... lots of moments of supreme confidence - almost always followed by another drunken escapade that I didn't really want to be on.
There's no permanent line that can be drawn...it's different for everybody. The only litmus tests I know of are try it out and see what happens......or look into your past and see if there were other times of complete confidence and study how they turned out.