Alcoholism is a progressive disease. It will get worse, unless it is stopped.
No one can say what is the bottom. I always drank at home, alone, and it got worse and worse and worse. That's how the disease works. Your girlfriend needs to make the decision to stop drinking. If she 'agrees' with your statment that she should stop drinking, she likely doesn't really mean it. I promised my husband hundreds of times that I would stop drinking, and what I really meant, deep down, was that I would try harder to control it, and not get caught.