GroundhogDay

So, I just had an interesting conversation with my husband. I am 7 months sober and I asked him what he thought the odds were that I would drink again. He gave it 30%. I did a little research and found out he is optimistic. Here is a summary of the findings of the largest study to date (abstract follows):

The most thorough attempt to understand what happens to addicts and alcoholics who stay sober is an eight-year study of nearly 1,200 addicts. They were able to follow up on over 94% of the study participants, and they found that extended abstinence really does predict long term recovery. Some takeaways from this research are:

• Only about a third of people who are abstinent less than a year will remain abstinent.
• For those who achieve a year of sobriety, less than half will relapse.
• If you can make it to 5 years of sobriety, your chance of relapse is less than 15 percent.

"An eight-year perspective on the relationship between the duration of abstinence and other aspects of recovery."
Dennis ML1, Foss MA, Scott CK.

Abstract
Using data from 1,162 people entering treatment and followed up (> 94%) for 8 years, this article examines the relationship between the duration of abstinence (1 month to 5 or more years) and other aspects of recovery (e.g., health, mental health, coping responses, legal involvement, vocational involvement, housing, peers, social and spiritual support), including the trend and at what point changes occur. It also examines how the duration of abstinence at a given point is related to the odds of sustaining abstinence in the subsequent year. The findings demonstrate the rich patterns of change associated with the course of long-term recovery.

The Psychology Today article I pulled this information from was related to the death of Philip Seymour Hoffman after 20 years of sobriety. I always get disheartened by these stories. However, at least this article has some good advice on that score. A doctor who specializes in addiction had this to say:

"My experience is that people with decades of abstinence clearly can and do relapse, but the incidence is very low. Like Hoffman and many others, it’s always heartbreaking when it happens. I’ve seen it triggered by opiate prescriptions, acute pain and other life stressors. Often the people who relapse have stopped engaging in the recovery-oriented practices that served them well during their earlier sobriety."

I'm going to take this as a lesson to 1) never get too far from SR, and 2) avoid backsliding into situations and behaviors I know will trigger me.

Soberwolf

7 months is a fantastic milestone congrats

Awesome post

ScottFromWI

Great work on 7 months and I do like your 2 lessons learned. Regarding all the stats, remember that there only one that REALLY matters- That you have a 100% chance to stay sober If you truly want it and work for it.

GroundhogDay

Well said, Scott, thanks!

PurpleDan

Yep. This exactly. I am so not an AA poster child - I dawdled with my steps and stopped going to meetings for several years. But I never forgot that I didn't have to pick up, even if my ass was falling off. And my ass has fallen off a few times in sobriety.' For me, it's always a choice. I can choose to pick up or I can choose not to. One day at a time. And that's worked for me for over 17 years. And I'm also a firm believer in working the steps...I don't know anyone with good, long-term sobriety that hasn't done them at least once.

PixieD

Thanks for that PurpleD. I've been basically telling myself that very same thing..It's a choice i must make. We all have it..choose wisely i guess. So coming from someone 17yrs sober i really appreciate hearing something simple...well hard as well i know! Lol

Dee74

Congrats on 7 months GHD

D

GroundhogDay

I'm not in AA, but I did look up Step 4 the other day to deal with some resentments I needed to let go of. It helped a lot.

MIRecovery

I pay no attention to the statistics because I plan on being in the winning side of the equation today and God willing I will die sober

Dee74

as far as statistics go - as an all day every day drinker for 5 years, and a serious binge drinker before that, I doubt my chance of success was statistically very high.

But I really wanted not to die an alcoholic death.

Since 2007 I've worked hard, and continue to be vigilant.
I changed everything I had to, and I found support.

I've not relapsed since finding SR.
My effort rate is 100% and my success rate is 100%

yours can be too GHD - anyone can do this

D

GroundhogDay

I know you are right, but I sometimes get a little discouraged when I read stories of people relapsing, especially when they spiral downward. I pass several addicted, homeless men and women on the street on my way to work. It was probably a thinner line between me and them at one point than I realize.

What I didn't say in the original post is that the same article said that wealthier, more educated people have a more difficult time maintaining sobriety than poor, less educated people. The problem appears to be that people of means have a greater ability to be "drunks without consequences." I think there are a lot of people where I live who fit that description. Someone told me that in the 1950s, my neighborhood was known for its drunken housewives. The local AA meeting, which meets twice a week, is packed to the rafters.

I feel better knowing the relapse rate is low after five years, and that there are things I can do to bring that rate down to zero.

GroundhogDay

I know you think it was backwards thinking on my part, but I had to make drastic changes to my life even before I got sober. I just couldn't cope otherwise.

Ken33xx

The only stat that counts is your own sobriety.

I find comfort in the one day at a time approach. Don`t know about tomorrow but today I`m not going to drink.

I also don`t talk much about my sobriety outside of AA or forums such as SR. This way I don`t feel pressure about my not drinking. If asked privately by those who knew me when I was hitting the bottle hard I`ll chat but generally I don`t go into detail about why I don`t drink.

Ken33xx

For me attending AA once or twice a week and saying the serenity prayer before going to bed are positive recovery tools which remind me of why I don`t drink.

MIRecovery

We have to own our sobriety. No one can make me drink no one can keep me sober. I know a ton of people with double digit sobriety. I know a ton of people in active alcoholism. Sober or drunk they are not me.

Twenty-Four Hours a Day
Jan. 6

AA Thought for the Day
Keeping sober is the most important thing in my life. The most important decision I ever made was my decision to give up drinking. I am convinced that my whole life depends on not taking that first drink. Nothing in the world is as important to me as my own sobriety. Everything I have, my whole life, depends on that one thing.

Can I afford ever to forget this, even for one minute?

Meditation for the Day
I will discipline myself. I will do this disciplining now. I will turn out all useless thoughts. I know that the goodness of my life is a necessary foundation for its usefulness. I will welcome this training, for without it God cannot give me this power. I believe that this power is a mighty power when it is used in the right way.

IOAA2

Hi.
This I found by way of a lot of pain is so accurate for me and most sober people:

AA Thought for the Day
Keeping sober is the most important thing in my life. The most important decision I ever made was my decision to give up drinking. I am convinced that my whole life depends on not taking that first drink. Nothing in the world is as important to me as my own sobriety. Everything I have, my whole life, depends on that one thing.

Can I afford ever to forget this, even for one minute?


BE WELL

Joybot

For those who are sober for many years, do you completely wipe out the craving or is it still a struggle no matter if you're one year into it or ten years into it.

NYCDoglvr

I think the biggest problem is addicts suffer from denial and rationalization, which is true of me going into my 24th year of recovery. I continue going to AA meetings to help others but also as a reminder that I can't have one drink. If I have a drink I can't stop.

PurpleDan

I have no cravings. They were lifted in the first week, after I got down on my knees and prayed to have the obsession removed (I'm not religious, so it was more a desperate plea to some sort of guiding force). Sometimes I think about it, in so far as "it would be nice to", but "coulda, woulda, shoulda" - I'm not afforded the luxury of being able to drink like a normal person and the solution to my problems is not at the bottom of a bottle...it's in the steps, meetings, service and fellowship.

GroundhogDay

I'm learning from others' experience that staying involved in recovery--service, fellowship, etc--is key even if I don't have cravings, and even if I have years of sobriety.