The insanity of stats!!!

[Tazman53]

Okay George I want you to give me accurate statistics on the following group of people:

They belong to a fellowship that keeps no real records of members so we can not give you the names of but a few hundred of the millions of members.

This is an anonymous fellowship that keeps no real records of who attends their meeting or how often they attend.

This fellowship is worldwide and we do know there are over 90,000 groups of these people, but there are also at least several thousand groups that even the HQ of this fellowship does not know about. Each group has between 3 to 500 members, they have no membership list, nor do they ever take attendance.

George this fellowship is a group of alcoholics that have a desire to stay sober and to help others achieve sobriety and we want to know with 10% accuracy what percentage of them stay sober for the rest of thier lifes.



I know George I know..... how in the world can you obtain accurate statistics on a fellowship that overall keeps no records at all & is anonymous?

Well we do have a list of real names of real people that have been forced to go to this fellowship either by the courts, therapist, or treatment centers so this should give you a good solid group of people to gather your data from.

Yes George I realize that the majority of those people on that list do not want to go to this fellowship, but that is what we have to give you.


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++

George asks questions and gets answers:

George: Okay what is the criteria for success?

A: Those who come into the fellowship and never drink again from the first time they go are considered a success.

George: How do I know if it is a persons first time to go to the fellowship or it is their 20th time if there are no records?

A: Just assume that every one of them are first timers.

George: So if one person fails 19 times and then succeeds I am to count that as 19 failures and 1 success?

A: Correct!

George: You do realize that there is no way to even come close to getting semi accurate stats on a group like this don't you?

A: Yes we do, but when one just looks at the people that have been forced to go to this fellowship either by the courts, therapist, or treatment centers we can claim to have statistics!

George: You know the results of this are going to be highly inaccurate!

A: Yes we know that.

George: This is insane!!!

A: Yes it is, but these statistics will increase sales of all alcoholism recovery related material and keep the Rehabs and detox industry growing!
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Just one old alkies take on the whole statistics on AA and any other recovery group out there today.

Statistics can not be drawn from the data that is available on any of them.

[BackToSquareOne]

You know Taz, I first attended AA in the early 90's after I spent an extended vacation in a psych ward for alcoholism and in retrospect none of it did a bit of good because I was not truely ready to surrender and throw in the towel at that time. Everything that was said to me went in one ear and out the other, I had pschyatrists, psychologists, counselors the whole nine yards but because I didn't do my part none of it really helped. You have to really want recovery and be willing to do whatever it takes or you'll just be spinning your wheels in any program. I wonder how many people in the rooms of any recovery program are really willing to go the distance.

[Cathy31]

LOL!! Very good Taz!! That's why I just stay away from these stats debates!
From your very grateful sister in recovery - thanks to AA and Higher Power
Cathy31
x

[Tazman53]

BackToSquareOne, you are so right, in order for any program to work one has to be willing to go the distance.

Statistics can not have any degree of accuracy on anything unless there is hard verifiable data to back it up.

When it comes to recovery, no matter what the program is, success/failure rates are beyond impossible to accurately report.

There are some treatment centers that do have some fairly accurate success/failure rates because they actually track indivduals that they have treated, but even those can be skewed by someone who is drinnking again lying to them when asked on the phone if they are still staying sober.

There is only one statistic I trust 100%, and that is me, I know with 100% accuracy that as of today I have been sober 879 days.

I know guys in AA that have been sober over 30 years, do I know with 100% certainity they have not had a drink in all that time? No, but I do beleive them.


Cathy I do not get into them like I used to, perhaps I will just reference this post in the future! LOL

[mikel60]

Hi Taz,
Nice post. Here's a stat: 311 people have viewed this thread. Three have responded. That's roughly 2.9 %. Can we now say this thread is only 2.9 % successful?

I agree with your post 100%.

Mike

[SelfSeeking]

Nice breakdown of this problem! Sticking a % after a number does not automatically make it accurate...

[Tommyh]

ty Taz....good perspective

[RufusACanal]

Nice work Martin and I am 100% in agreement

[24hrsAday]

stats are only useful to statisticians..

[Pinkcuda]

In June of 1939 AA had a 100% success rate. 3 of 3 had recovered. Never to drink again!
I bought a lottery ticket once and won. I never bought another one. Therefore I have won the lottery every time I played.

[laurie6781]

R O F L M A O


So funny but oh so true!!!!!!!


Thank you so much, I really needed that laugh today.

Love and hugs,

[FightingIrish]

100% of debates about statistics **** me off. :-)