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Simple! Based on your past experience with drinking, can you guarantee the outcome after you pick up your first drink with any regularity?
By guaranteeing the outcome I mean, Can you stop after a couple or a few drinks. Can you stop after a couple because that's what you're made of or is it because you're trying to prove to yourself or someone else that you're not an alcoholic?
If you can stop or moderate, you're probably not an alcoholic.
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