[navysteve]

This is an interesting paper put out this year regarding AA myth and misinterpretation. I do not read it as gospel, but it is the most sensible paper I have read:

http://hindsfoot.org/recout01.pdf


Tell me what you think?

I just read it so I am still absorbing the information

Also noteworthy in the derivation of the mythical percentages, is the absence of fundamental academic disciplines of methodical research, corroborating verification and factual citation of sources. Regrettably, some of the advocates who are propagating the myth are AA members who purport to be “AA Historians” and appear to be advocating agendas that portray fiction as fact and hearsay as history. The AA Fellowship has a robust verbal tradition. Much information is passed on by word of mouth. This has both its good and difficult sides. How does one know what is fact versus myth? AA members can sincerely state something they believe is true but is inaccurate

pg 3

Even more unfortunate, concerning statistical confidence and accuracy of the citations, is that none of the authors (or self-proclaimed “AA Historians”) has apparently independently performed a critical, unbiased investigation of the original data or attempted to duplicate the calculations of AA’s reputed “failure statistics” from the basic source data listed in the membership surveys. That basic data, and an explanation of what it signifies, follows this section.

pg 4

Of the 11,355 members who filled out questionnaires at AA meetings, 60% reported that they had not had a drink of alcohol for one year or more (emphasis added). This is one indication that AA works. According to the data which follows, it can be assumed that many of the remaining 40% are newcomers who have either not had a drink or who stopped drinking shortly after attending their first meeting.

pg 6

The notion of an overall 75% successful recovery outcome rate in AA owes its durability to anecdotal repetition rather than consistent statistical demonstration. There is very little consistent, verifiable data and record keeping either validating or refuting the claim of any recovery outcome rates for AA. The only specific population sample identified by AA co-founder Bill W, as achieving a 50% + 25% (or overall 75%) success rate, were the pioneering members who had their personal stories printed in the first edition Big Book. 6 Beyond that, the origin or validation of the percentages is neither explained nor demonstrated. The information that follows presents a chronological series of references and citations of written works in which recovery outcome rates, and factors influencing the rates, are mentioned. July 1938 - The earliest archival reference found to a cited success rate of 50% occurs in a letter from Bill W to Dr
Richard C Cabot in which Bill W wrote:

We have never developed any accurate statistical information (emphasis added) but I should say that we have dealt with about 200 cases in all, about half of whom seem to have recovered. Doctors tell us that, almost without exception, we have been problem drinkers of a class commonly regarded as hopeless. 7 August 1938 - The relatively small AA population at the time allowed some measure of tracking success or failure by individual member.